Xi is taking a turn toward the re-Stalinization of the economy, which involves damping the private sector while reinvigorating state owned companies. His focus is no longer on promoting economic growth broadly, but in advancing scientific and technological know-how which will have military applications, very likely in preparation for the…
Xi is taking a turn toward the re-Stalinization of the economy, which involves damping the private sector while reinvigorating state owned companies. His focus is no longer on promoting economic growth broadly, but in advancing scientific and technological know-how which will have military applications, very likely in preparation for the coming war over Taiwan and beyond. His policies are also forcing international companies to de-risk, by converting local operations into Chinese businesses as a hedge against the state moving against their assets. Foreign companies under the new security law cannot any longer collect routine business information without being accused of spying, so we are seeing a flight of foreign capital. Xi will allow local governments to default on their massive indebtedness, and will do nothing about the large youth unemployment, telling youth instead to "eat bitterness," or suck it up and endure. The ensuing collapse of the economy will provide the precondition and the pretext for the state to move massively into the business of nationalization, expropriation without compensation. Party committee's placed in private businesses of all kind to monitor their operations will seize control as nationalization is put into effect. The turn will be historic, on the scale of Stalin's sudden discarding of the market friendly NEP (Lenin's New Economic Policy 1921-29) in favor of a centrally planned economy. The two models discussed here ignore the ideological underpinnings of Xi's policy at their peril.
Your narrative is certainly a possibility. The argument begins grounded on 'facts' I've also encountered in the Western & Allied press up to "suck it up and endure." Then the speculative lurch to "The ensuing collapse..." was a bit of an abrupt 'great leap forward.' It would be interesting if you could propose some intermediary events on a timescale of 8 weeks to 48 months that are likely to unfold between now and the undated "collapse."
Hard to say. Change occurs gradually and cumulatively, then suddenly, as quantity passes into quality (Hegel). The regime is putting much store in its EV exports, the trigger might be the EU probe finding unfair trade practices (mercantist subsidies) and slap protective tariffs. This would compound all the other of China's economic woes and prove a tipping point.
Xi is taking a turn toward the re-Stalinization of the economy, which involves damping the private sector while reinvigorating state owned companies. His focus is no longer on promoting economic growth broadly, but in advancing scientific and technological know-how which will have military applications, very likely in preparation for the coming war over Taiwan and beyond. His policies are also forcing international companies to de-risk, by converting local operations into Chinese businesses as a hedge against the state moving against their assets. Foreign companies under the new security law cannot any longer collect routine business information without being accused of spying, so we are seeing a flight of foreign capital. Xi will allow local governments to default on their massive indebtedness, and will do nothing about the large youth unemployment, telling youth instead to "eat bitterness," or suck it up and endure. The ensuing collapse of the economy will provide the precondition and the pretext for the state to move massively into the business of nationalization, expropriation without compensation. Party committee's placed in private businesses of all kind to monitor their operations will seize control as nationalization is put into effect. The turn will be historic, on the scale of Stalin's sudden discarding of the market friendly NEP (Lenin's New Economic Policy 1921-29) in favor of a centrally planned economy. The two models discussed here ignore the ideological underpinnings of Xi's policy at their peril.
Your narrative is certainly a possibility. The argument begins grounded on 'facts' I've also encountered in the Western & Allied press up to "suck it up and endure." Then the speculative lurch to "The ensuing collapse..." was a bit of an abrupt 'great leap forward.' It would be interesting if you could propose some intermediary events on a timescale of 8 weeks to 48 months that are likely to unfold between now and the undated "collapse."
Hard to say. Change occurs gradually and cumulatively, then suddenly, as quantity passes into quality (Hegel). The regime is putting much store in its EV exports, the trigger might be the EU probe finding unfair trade practices (mercantist subsidies) and slap protective tariffs. This would compound all the other of China's economic woes and prove a tipping point.