In the urgency of the present, our thinking about Ukraine is drawn to the immediate past. We place the current crisis against the backdrop of the “Maidan revolution” of 2013-2014, or the first escalation of tension with Russia in 2007-2008, or the orange revolution of 2004. We go back to the fateful negotiations between 1991 and 1994 over the end of the Soviet Union and Ukraine’s nuclear weapons between.
Giving a shoutout to the Revolutions podcast, which now in its tenth season is taking on the Russian Revolution in all its depth -- and a listen there corroborates what you say here, Ukraine is its own actor but enmeshed (as we all are) in Russian and European history. http://www.astro.wisc.edu/~jwp/revolutions-episode-index.html
Do you think Biden and NATO are willing to force Zelensky and the Rada to concede to the loss of the East and Southern Coastal areas, and Crimea, to prevent what they widely fear - a confrontation with Russia in the air first, then on the ground? Isn't that what the NYET on a NO Fly Zone means? Will the news coverage on CNN outflank this peace at Ukrainian's cost strategy? By that it a race between Russian atrocity and Western reluctance to take risks... If Putin observed Biden's negotiations with Joe Manchin, what does he fear...
Adam, Thanks for your work here. There is a situation in the Ukraine that hasn't gotten much coverage. In about four weeks, the rains will start. Russian & Ukrainian mud has it's own WIKI page. It's called the Rasputitsa, look it up. Sometimes in '41 & '42, the mud was the only thing that stopped the Wehrmacht. Stopped Napoleon too. When there's mud, off road traffic stops for all intents & purposes. It lasts 4-6 weeks. The fact that they started an invasion before it starts shows the poor strategic preparation of this offensive. It would have made more sense to wait until June when good weather for a campaign occurs.
They must have thought that the Ukrainians wouldn't fight. In 1941, it took the Germans 800,000 men and six months to conquer the Ukraine. And that was against the Red Army that fell apart most of the time. The Ukrainians are Not falling apart. They are heavily armed and are fighting back. It looks to me like the Russians are about 625,000 men short of what they need to have a chance of success. Finally, the Russian Army is a joke compared to the Wehrmacht of 1941. That was one of the greatest armies in history.
Another thing that's struck me is: THEY STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH VEHICLES FOR EVERYONE TO RIDE INSIDE!?! They have to ride on top of armored vehicles just like the Soviet propaganda photos of 1944. Like, most armies ride INSIDE armored vehicles. Seventy five years after WW2, they still don't have enough trucks!?! Much less the AFVs our troops ride in. Men on vehicles get knocked off pretty easy. This is not a modern army. It is a charade of an army, always has been. The Russians have historically lost battles at the beginning of wars. Like for 300 years. I can't see how this ends well for them.
Now, they say the Russians will resort to mass bombing & shelling. Since Japanese terror bombing of China in the '30s, it's been found that this Stiffens the resolve of those attacked, not degrade it. The Ukrainians seem to have high morale now, wait until the terror bombing starts. They'll end up invading Russia.
I've been trying to imagine the force structure required to conquer a country of 40 million people. We had 600,000 men plus 1,000,000 ARVN in Viet Nam and didn't prevail against a similar size country. Remember Ukrainian guerrillas fought the Russians for six Years after WW2! These are not a people that will be conquered easily. It seems to me that an army of a million plus would be needed. The most men the Russians put into Afghanistan was 325,000. It's unclear if the Russians have enough modern equipment & men for a larger sized force. They will need one to subdue the Ukraine.
At this point, the Russians must have about 120,000 effectives. Killed, wounded, missing, non-operational losses, etc have eaten into the original force which hasn’t been reinforced much. It won’t be long but Ukrainian forces may outnumber the Russian Army. In 1942, a couple of plain German Infantry Divisions south of Lake Lagoda were attacked for 4-5 months by Russian forces. They fought them off and then went on the offensive when the Russians had shot their bolt. Ended up pushing the R’s back to their start line. I can see a similar scenario after the rains. Plus, volunteer units will be ready then, it won’t be pretty for the Russians.
Lastly, they are running out of ammo. This is common in most wars as pre-war planning never produces enough ammo for real combat. I saw a report the they were out of smart munitions. Same thing happened in 1914. This stuff can’t be replenished overnight. Plus soon, the mud will make resupply difficult.
I'm no expert on these affairs, I just read history. Maybe Putin should have too.
Adam, Thanks for your work here. There is a situation in the Ukraine that hasn't gotten much coverage. In about four weeks, the rains will start. Russian & Ukrainian mud has it's own WIKI page. It's called the Rasputitsa, look it up. Sometimes in '41 & '42, the mud was the only thing that stopped the Wehrmacht. Stopped Napoleon too. When there's mud, off road traffic stops for all intents & purposes. It lasts 4-6 weeks. The fact that they started an invasion before it starts shows the poor strategic preparation of this offensive. It would have made more sense to wait until June when good weather for a campaign occurs.
They must have thought that the Ukrainians wouldn't fight. In 1941, it took the Germans 800,000 men and six months to conquer the Ukraine. And that was against the Red Army that fell apart most of the time. The Ukrainians are Not falling apart. They are heavily armed and are fighting back. It looks to me like the Russians are about 625,000 men short of what they need to have a chance of success. Finally, the Russian Army is a joke compared to the Wehrmacht of 1941. That was one of the greatest armies in history.
Another thing that's struck me is: THEY STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH VEHICLES FOR EVERYONE TO RIDE INSIDE!?! They have to ride on top of armored vehicles just like the Soviet propaganda photos of 1944. Like, most armies ride INSIDE armored vehicles. Seventy five years after WW2, they still don't have enough trucks!?! Much less the AFVs our troops ride in. Men on vehicles get knocked off pretty easy. This is not a modern army. It is a charade of an army, always has been. The Russians have historically lost battles at the beginning of wars. Like for 300 years. I can't see how this ends well for them.
Now, they say the Russians will resort to mass bombing & shelling. Since Japanese terror bombing of China in the '30s, it's been found that this Stiffens the resolve of those attacked, not degrade it. The Ukrainians seem to have high morale now, wait until the terror bombing starts. They'll end up invading Russia.
I've been trying to imagine the force structure required to conquer a country of 40 million people. We had 600,000 men plus 1,000,000 ARVN in Viet Nam and didn't prevail against a similar size country. Remember Ukrainian guerrillas fought the Russians for six Years after WW2! These are not a people that will be conquered easily. It seems to me that an army of a million plus would be needed. The most men the Russians put into Afghanistan was 325,000. It's unclear if the Russians have enough modern equipment & men for a larger sized force. They will need one to subdue the Ukraine.
At this point, the Russians must have about 120,000 effectives. Killed, wounded, missing, non-operational losses, etc have eaten into the original force which hasn’t been reinforced much. It won’t be long but Ukrainian forces may outnumber the Russian Army. In 1942, a couple of plain German Infantry Divisions south of Lake Lagoda were attacked for 4-5 months by Russian forces. They fought them off and then went on the offensive when the Russians had shot their bolt. Ended up pushing the R’s back to their start line. I can see a similar scenario after the rains. Plus, volunteer units will be ready then, it won’t be pretty for the Russians.
Lastly, they are running out of ammo. This is common in most wars as pre-war planning never produces enough ammo for real combat. I saw a report the they were out of smart munitions. Same thing happened in 1914. This stuff can’t be replenished overnight. Plus soon, the mud will make resupply difficult.
I'm no expert on these affairs, I just read history. Maybe Putin should have too.
Giving a shoutout to the Revolutions podcast, which now in its tenth season is taking on the Russian Revolution in all its depth -- and a listen there corroborates what you say here, Ukraine is its own actor but enmeshed (as we all are) in Russian and European history. http://www.astro.wisc.edu/~jwp/revolutions-episode-index.html
Do you think Biden and NATO are willing to force Zelensky and the Rada to concede to the loss of the East and Southern Coastal areas, and Crimea, to prevent what they widely fear - a confrontation with Russia in the air first, then on the ground? Isn't that what the NYET on a NO Fly Zone means? Will the news coverage on CNN outflank this peace at Ukrainian's cost strategy? By that it a race between Russian atrocity and Western reluctance to take risks... If Putin observed Biden's negotiations with Joe Manchin, what does he fear...
RUSH MCALLISTER2 min ago
Adam, Thanks for your work here. There is a situation in the Ukraine that hasn't gotten much coverage. In about four weeks, the rains will start. Russian & Ukrainian mud has it's own WIKI page. It's called the Rasputitsa, look it up. Sometimes in '41 & '42, the mud was the only thing that stopped the Wehrmacht. Stopped Napoleon too. When there's mud, off road traffic stops for all intents & purposes. It lasts 4-6 weeks. The fact that they started an invasion before it starts shows the poor strategic preparation of this offensive. It would have made more sense to wait until June when good weather for a campaign occurs.
They must have thought that the Ukrainians wouldn't fight. In 1941, it took the Germans 800,000 men and six months to conquer the Ukraine. And that was against the Red Army that fell apart most of the time. The Ukrainians are Not falling apart. They are heavily armed and are fighting back. It looks to me like the Russians are about 625,000 men short of what they need to have a chance of success. Finally, the Russian Army is a joke compared to the Wehrmacht of 1941. That was one of the greatest armies in history.
Another thing that's struck me is: THEY STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH VEHICLES FOR EVERYONE TO RIDE INSIDE!?! They have to ride on top of armored vehicles just like the Soviet propaganda photos of 1944. Like, most armies ride INSIDE armored vehicles. Seventy five years after WW2, they still don't have enough trucks!?! Much less the AFVs our troops ride in. Men on vehicles get knocked off pretty easy. This is not a modern army. It is a charade of an army, always has been. The Russians have historically lost battles at the beginning of wars. Like for 300 years. I can't see how this ends well for them.
Now, they say the Russians will resort to mass bombing & shelling. Since Japanese terror bombing of China in the '30s, it's been found that this Stiffens the resolve of those attacked, not degrade it. The Ukrainians seem to have high morale now, wait until the terror bombing starts. They'll end up invading Russia.
I've been trying to imagine the force structure required to conquer a country of 40 million people. We had 600,000 men plus 1,000,000 ARVN in Viet Nam and didn't prevail against a similar size country. Remember Ukrainian guerrillas fought the Russians for six Years after WW2! These are not a people that will be conquered easily. It seems to me that an army of a million plus would be needed. The most men the Russians put into Afghanistan was 325,000. It's unclear if the Russians have enough modern equipment & men for a larger sized force. They will need one to subdue the Ukraine.
At this point, the Russians must have about 120,000 effectives. Killed, wounded, missing, non-operational losses, etc have eaten into the original force which hasn’t been reinforced much. It won’t be long but Ukrainian forces may outnumber the Russian Army. In 1942, a couple of plain German Infantry Divisions south of Lake Lagoda were attacked for 4-5 months by Russian forces. They fought them off and then went on the offensive when the Russians had shot their bolt. Ended up pushing the R’s back to their start line. I can see a similar scenario after the rains. Plus, volunteer units will be ready then, it won’t be pretty for the Russians.
Lastly, they are running out of ammo. This is common in most wars as pre-war planning never produces enough ammo for real combat. I saw a report the they were out of smart munitions. Same thing happened in 1914. This stuff can’t be replenished overnight. Plus soon, the mud will make resupply difficult.
I'm no expert on these affairs, I just read history. Maybe Putin should have too.
RUSH MCALLISTER2 min ago
Adam, Thanks for your work here. There is a situation in the Ukraine that hasn't gotten much coverage. In about four weeks, the rains will start. Russian & Ukrainian mud has it's own WIKI page. It's called the Rasputitsa, look it up. Sometimes in '41 & '42, the mud was the only thing that stopped the Wehrmacht. Stopped Napoleon too. When there's mud, off road traffic stops for all intents & purposes. It lasts 4-6 weeks. The fact that they started an invasion before it starts shows the poor strategic preparation of this offensive. It would have made more sense to wait until June when good weather for a campaign occurs.
They must have thought that the Ukrainians wouldn't fight. In 1941, it took the Germans 800,000 men and six months to conquer the Ukraine. And that was against the Red Army that fell apart most of the time. The Ukrainians are Not falling apart. They are heavily armed and are fighting back. It looks to me like the Russians are about 625,000 men short of what they need to have a chance of success. Finally, the Russian Army is a joke compared to the Wehrmacht of 1941. That was one of the greatest armies in history.
Another thing that's struck me is: THEY STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH VEHICLES FOR EVERYONE TO RIDE INSIDE!?! They have to ride on top of armored vehicles just like the Soviet propaganda photos of 1944. Like, most armies ride INSIDE armored vehicles. Seventy five years after WW2, they still don't have enough trucks!?! Much less the AFVs our troops ride in. Men on vehicles get knocked off pretty easy. This is not a modern army. It is a charade of an army, always has been. The Russians have historically lost battles at the beginning of wars. Like for 300 years. I can't see how this ends well for them.
Now, they say the Russians will resort to mass bombing & shelling. Since Japanese terror bombing of China in the '30s, it's been found that this Stiffens the resolve of those attacked, not degrade it. The Ukrainians seem to have high morale now, wait until the terror bombing starts. They'll end up invading Russia.
I've been trying to imagine the force structure required to conquer a country of 40 million people. We had 600,000 men plus 1,000,000 ARVN in Viet Nam and didn't prevail against a similar size country. Remember Ukrainian guerrillas fought the Russians for six Years after WW2! These are not a people that will be conquered easily. It seems to me that an army of a million plus would be needed. The most men the Russians put into Afghanistan was 325,000. It's unclear if the Russians have enough modern equipment & men for a larger sized force. They will need one to subdue the Ukraine.
At this point, the Russians must have about 120,000 effectives. Killed, wounded, missing, non-operational losses, etc have eaten into the original force which hasn’t been reinforced much. It won’t be long but Ukrainian forces may outnumber the Russian Army. In 1942, a couple of plain German Infantry Divisions south of Lake Lagoda were attacked for 4-5 months by Russian forces. They fought them off and then went on the offensive when the Russians had shot their bolt. Ended up pushing the R’s back to their start line. I can see a similar scenario after the rains. Plus, volunteer units will be ready then, it won’t be pretty for the Russians.
Lastly, they are running out of ammo. This is common in most wars as pre-war planning never produces enough ammo for real combat. I saw a report the they were out of smart munitions. Same thing happened in 1914. This stuff can’t be replenished overnight. Plus soon, the mud will make resupply difficult.
I'm no expert on these affairs, I just read history. Maybe Putin should have too.
Rush McAllister
St Louis, Mo
Are any other of your lectures on Germany available online? I found the one linked, on the World War I in the East, very interesting
When it comes to Ukrainian (or rather, proto-Ukrainian) state, it's also worth bearing in mind the following episode:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Hadiach
What do you think of Nelson's book Oceans of Grain?