The @jburnmurdoch FT graph of COVID deaths is set to become the Minard-“1812”-graph of the COVID pandemic. Source: FT This is our reality folks. In the week ending January 27 2022, there were on average 8610 officially recognized COVID deaths per day, of which 2267 were in the USA. A similar number died across Europe (EU and non-EU). Those are staggering numbers.
Sometimes a snow needs to fall to see the tracks of the beasts: COVID certainly revealed the tracks of big pharma predators and how much real power they have as opposed to nominal power of regulators and "elected officials". In little over 10 years Pfizer went from example of biggest fraudsters in US corporate history (actually causing thousands of deaths), to "saviors" around which all government policies were wrapped up to give them monopolistic advantage.
If I understand your discussion correctly, you seem to have provided more evidence of the state-corporate nexus being reversed: it seems that rather than states chartering corporations granting them certain rights and retaining the right to revoke their charter, now corporations rule the world, dictating to the state what the corporations will and will not do. This is especially egregious when taxpayer dollars are given to the corporation to fund the development of a product and then the corporation prices the product to generate 'excess' profits. Seems a lot like what Sheldon Wolin called Democracy, Inc.
Other than the lure of the post-federal government direct to a job at Big Pharma revolving door, the failure of the US government to negotiate better pricing with Pfizer and Moderna remains perplexing.
The “simplest” approach would have been to offer tax incentives, the hardball convincer would have been a sharp increase in regulatory oversight and on site visits. In addition, as Covid is a global healthcare emergency, that and the massive public infusion of resources might have justified something as drastic as the temporary seizure of the patents.
In the real world, none of this was even attempted. Maybe the feds should have appointed Mark Cuban as their chief negotiator. His recently launched online, low cost pharmacy suggests he might have had greater success.
As an aside, some clarity is needed on the died “from” as opposed to “with” Covid issue. That may not be possible at this point, because among the other things the factors going into counting a “Covid death” is far from consistent even within the US, let alone the rest of the world. I’m not sure that the answer lies in the “excess death” formula. But then, I’m not a scientist.
Omicron has demonstrated that we are not going to end the pandemic via vaccines, so we can stop having these discussions under the pretense that a couple extra percentage points of vaccination in Africa would somehow help "end it."
It's not going to end. We are going to get better at treating it and our collective immune systems will become better at recognizing it and fighting it off. Vaccines are a helpful tool in that fight, and it makes perfect sense to concentrate the use of that tool among the population that is doing the dying (i.e. old people in the developed world). It also makes sense to make selling vaccines a profitable enterprise, since we will likely all require yearly boosters for the rest of our lives and we want a variety of companies to keep investing in the research and technology required. It's not a moonshot, it's just part of our lives that the market will have to provide for.
AT is conflating deaths in the highly vaccinated, but old and unhealthy, populations of Europe and America with lack of vaccinations among 25 year old Africans. The two simply aren't related.
It is important to remember that excess deaths due to COVID include many that are the result of the lack of access to treatment for other illnesses that follows in the wake of overtaxed health systems. It's worth looking at the figures of excess deaths, and how the falls on the poorest and least powerful people.
PS, There are some studies of excess death directly or indirectly due to Covid. Several recent ones looked at the excess deaths in 2020 only; these would likely have more than doubled in 2021, given the high numbers of directly-attributed deaths and the burden on hospitals from the delta and omicron variants.
Attached is one paper showing excess deaths just for 2020 at the COUNTY level, with lots of graphics. Then an abstract of a paper from Am J Public Health, showing disproportionate effects on minorities. Note this one estimates 16.6 excess deaths per 10,000 in US population, or 564,400 (taking US population at 340 million.) Of these, 474,100 or so were directly attributed to Covid-19 and the rest to indirect effects. I don’t think there are estimates out for 2021 but I’d guess well over a million, combining direct and indirect.
One potential cause of indirect mortality is the burden on hospitals – I’ll just add one abstract that attempted to estimate how that would play out, based on numbers they already had.
Thanks for laying this out, AT. The data here are complex, and the implications for policy making as well. As another reader noted here, Sheldon Wolin and Democracy, Inc. comes to mind.
The original Pfizer and Moderna vaccine safety studies showed more severe adverse vaccine events then severe covid-19. That data is in the supplementary appendices. According to those studies, which are the only randomized controlled trials we have for the vaccines, reducing infections comes at a cost in health.
Lots of authors have discussed this but were shut down. I also wrote about it on my stack.
Sometimes a snow needs to fall to see the tracks of the beasts: COVID certainly revealed the tracks of big pharma predators and how much real power they have as opposed to nominal power of regulators and "elected officials". In little over 10 years Pfizer went from example of biggest fraudsters in US corporate history (actually causing thousands of deaths), to "saviors" around which all government policies were wrapped up to give them monopolistic advantage.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-largest-health-care-fraud-settlement-its-history
If I understand your discussion correctly, you seem to have provided more evidence of the state-corporate nexus being reversed: it seems that rather than states chartering corporations granting them certain rights and retaining the right to revoke their charter, now corporations rule the world, dictating to the state what the corporations will and will not do. This is especially egregious when taxpayer dollars are given to the corporation to fund the development of a product and then the corporation prices the product to generate 'excess' profits. Seems a lot like what Sheldon Wolin called Democracy, Inc.
Other than the lure of the post-federal government direct to a job at Big Pharma revolving door, the failure of the US government to negotiate better pricing with Pfizer and Moderna remains perplexing.
The “simplest” approach would have been to offer tax incentives, the hardball convincer would have been a sharp increase in regulatory oversight and on site visits. In addition, as Covid is a global healthcare emergency, that and the massive public infusion of resources might have justified something as drastic as the temporary seizure of the patents.
In the real world, none of this was even attempted. Maybe the feds should have appointed Mark Cuban as their chief negotiator. His recently launched online, low cost pharmacy suggests he might have had greater success.
As an aside, some clarity is needed on the died “from” as opposed to “with” Covid issue. That may not be possible at this point, because among the other things the factors going into counting a “Covid death” is far from consistent even within the US, let alone the rest of the world. I’m not sure that the answer lies in the “excess death” formula. But then, I’m not a scientist.
Thank you for such a thorough discussion. I am grateful for your clarity.
Omicron has demonstrated that we are not going to end the pandemic via vaccines, so we can stop having these discussions under the pretense that a couple extra percentage points of vaccination in Africa would somehow help "end it."
It's not going to end. We are going to get better at treating it and our collective immune systems will become better at recognizing it and fighting it off. Vaccines are a helpful tool in that fight, and it makes perfect sense to concentrate the use of that tool among the population that is doing the dying (i.e. old people in the developed world). It also makes sense to make selling vaccines a profitable enterprise, since we will likely all require yearly boosters for the rest of our lives and we want a variety of companies to keep investing in the research and technology required. It's not a moonshot, it's just part of our lives that the market will have to provide for.
AT is conflating deaths in the highly vaccinated, but old and unhealthy, populations of Europe and America with lack of vaccinations among 25 year old Africans. The two simply aren't related.
It is important to remember that excess deaths due to COVID include many that are the result of the lack of access to treatment for other illnesses that follows in the wake of overtaxed health systems. It's worth looking at the figures of excess deaths, and how the falls on the poorest and least powerful people.
PS, There are some studies of excess death directly or indirectly due to Covid. Several recent ones looked at the excess deaths in 2020 only; these would likely have more than doubled in 2021, given the high numbers of directly-attributed deaths and the burden on hospitals from the delta and omicron variants.
Attached is one paper showing excess deaths just for 2020 at the COUNTY level, with lots of graphics. Then an abstract of a paper from Am J Public Health, showing disproportionate effects on minorities. Note this one estimates 16.6 excess deaths per 10,000 in US population, or 564,400 (taking US population at 340 million.) Of these, 474,100 or so were directly attributed to Covid-19 and the rest to indirect effects. I don’t think there are estimates out for 2021 but I’d guess well over a million, combining direct and indirect.
One potential cause of indirect mortality is the burden on hospitals – I’ll just add one abstract that attempted to estimate how that would play out, based on numbers they already had.
Laurel Beckett
Laurel A. Beckett, Ph.D.
Distinguished Professor Emerita
Department of Public Health Sciences
University of California, Davis
One Shields Avenue
Medical Sciences 1C
Davis, CA 95616
530-304-4291 mobile
labeckett@ucdavis.edu
Thanks for laying this out, AT. The data here are complex, and the implications for policy making as well. As another reader noted here, Sheldon Wolin and Democracy, Inc. comes to mind.
The original Pfizer and Moderna vaccine safety studies showed more severe adverse vaccine events then severe covid-19. That data is in the supplementary appendices. According to those studies, which are the only randomized controlled trials we have for the vaccines, reducing infections comes at a cost in health.
Lots of authors have discussed this but were shut down. I also wrote about it on my stack.