... an answer to Cédric Durand.
Goddamn Adam, you really are an army of grad researchers, not a single person. How do you manage to put out solid pieces, consistently, day-after-day?
Very good analysis on energy market.However in India's seasonal factor played a major role in coal shortage.During monsoon months coal mines are unable to produce as much due to water logging.This year was a very unusual late monsoon withdrawal.
This is fantastic. But you must also be thinking ahead to what happens if/when the crunch is real. Bloomberg reported today an increase in the cost of capital for fossil fuel producers -- OK, great, that is part of the mainstream theory of change behind carbon taxes, climate risk disclosure, etc. This is the harder side of the decarbonization equation; easier to create winners (renewables) than uproot incumbents (fossils). Will the timelines match? If not, this exercise shows the results will be uneven; this is why campaigners such as Oil Change Int'l are now convening in Paris discussions not just of an end to new fossil finance (which big players are now embracing in COP context more than ever before) but what an equitable phase-out to existing fossils looks like. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-09/cost-of-capital-widens-for-fossil-fuel-producers-green-insight
SO...not a major critique here, BUT - where does the China/Australia squabble, and the resultant Chinese emergency measures for domestic coal production fit in this picture?
zero mention of Merkel's decision in close all of Germany’s nuclear plants?
if this winter is cold (as it looks like it might be now) and they need to shut down production to divert energy to homes to physically survive, you'll need to revisit this article to add the impact of bad risk government policies
Great stuff, all of it
Question is, HOW and WHERE does all this indicate more commitment to the energy transition. Simply more incentives/disincentives?
Shouldn't we also connect the energy crisis with nearly unlimited monetary expansion? This is where breakneck demand for Chinese exports in the "post-covid" expansion came from; hence the Chinese LNG import boom; hence the gas spot prices skyrocketing; hence the European squeeze.
Also the multiplication of wars, sanctions and embargoes must play a role; Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Libya are all constrained in their ability to supply oil and/or gas. This allowed the shale gas / shale oil industry to flourish. Now that shale seems to have hit a ceiling...
Everybody eventually sits down to a banquet of consequences, said some wise man.