The start of a new regime?
Adam, are you five researchers? Absolutely brilliant analysis. Frankly in awe of your warnings and observations.
IF (!) QE does "unwind" starting 2022 (meaning: actual reduction in Fed balance sheet), one has to ask: Could unwind have happened if covid never happened? How ODD that a disease was the basis of removal of stimulus! IF this is a true statement, neoclassical economics will not survive imho.
Great post overall! One nitpick: "As chair, Jerome Powell has invested considerable capital in the idea that inflation was transitory. The evidence continues to support that view. What has changed is that the period of price adjustments appears to be more protracted than expected." I think a more honest way to put it is "But inflation has persisted at high levels, reducing confidence that it is, in fact, transitory". "More protracted transitory inflation" is some galaxy-brain central banker language to try and ignore reality.