"spending on the Bundeswehr would be little more than the routine US defense budget, in proportional terms" that would make how many military bases? 20?40?80?
A great piece with a shrewd conclusion, but I’d say that total war was not only envisioned before 1914 - it was seriously prefigured in the US Civil War.
The lessons of which were duly ignored because, well, you know -- the colonials are savages anyways, eh? Nothing like that surely could happen in the heart of civilization itself?
Before WWI, as Professor Tooze knows full well, there was an influential and well-informed school of thought that held that a general european war could only last a few weeks or months at most, because all sides would rapidly run out of money.
Thing is - they were right - but they didn't predict how far european governments would go to keep the war going.
This is why I subscribed to Chartbook in the first place and this is - amongst other reasons (i.e. equal parts of good entertainment AND useful tidbits of information and education) - why I love this newsletter so much!
What you do here is really writing great books in real time, chapter per chapter (and just in time when we need them for context).
"Russia’s economy though it has capabilities in key industries and lots of oil and gas, is tiny" As in the fourth largest in the world, after China, US, and India's?
All this talk of militarization but no mention how much, much cheaper it would be to do diplomacy and consider what are Russian fears and their need of security guarantees... How much cheaper that would be...
If you're in the EU, you're being tricked by Trump administration into doing their fighting for them. Not everyone, probably, but some of the poorer nations will be manipulated into being the next proxy. Also, because requirements of interoperability and the current realities of how NATO works, a good chunk of the money will go to US manufacturers. In the end, there will be a replenished arsenal with which to equip half a million Poles or Romanians 5 years from now, for a suicide mission little different from what Ukraine is doing now.
This is a welcome dose of realism in a discourse dominated by fevers and fantasy. I would point out only that German demographics also pose a challenge, especially given that the smaller, younger cohorts voted disproportionately for anti-war parties of both the far left (Die Linke) and far right (AfD). If the "radical centrists" elected primarily by pensioners ask the young to go to war, will they?
Maybe a little diplomacy is in order to bring Russia back into normal relations as an equal within a wider European security framework unseen since the Dreikaiserbund or, before that, the Concert of Europe? Unfortunately I don't see a Bismarck, let alone a Metternich, on the European horizon ...
A further point - the passing dismissal of the early 1980s peace movement could mislead: there was an emergency due to the competition in intermediate-range missiles, which partly through the movement’s response led to the end of the Cold War, as I argue in my new history, The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament https://www.agendapub.com/page/detail/the-campaign-for-nuclear-disarmament/?k=9781788217774
My guess is the 300 series are Tooze's own reflections; the 600 series are compliation from various articles in the public domain that caught Adam Tooze's eye (including those artisitic ventures)...
"spending on the Bundeswehr would be little more than the routine US defense budget, in proportional terms" that would make how many military bases? 20?40?80?
A great piece with a shrewd conclusion, but I’d say that total war was not only envisioned before 1914 - it was seriously prefigured in the US Civil War.
The lessons of which were duly ignored because, well, you know -- the colonials are savages anyways, eh? Nothing like that surely could happen in the heart of civilization itself?
Oops ...
Before WWI, as Professor Tooze knows full well, there was an influential and well-informed school of thought that held that a general european war could only last a few weeks or months at most, because all sides would rapidly run out of money.
Thing is - they were right - but they didn't predict how far european governments would go to keep the war going.
This is why I subscribed to Chartbook in the first place and this is - amongst other reasons (i.e. equal parts of good entertainment AND useful tidbits of information and education) - why I love this newsletter so much!
What you do here is really writing great books in real time, chapter per chapter (and just in time when we need them for context).
Thanks a lot 🤓👏
"Russia’s economy though it has capabilities in key industries and lots of oil and gas, is tiny" As in the fourth largest in the world, after China, US, and India's?
All this talk of militarization but no mention how much, much cheaper it would be to do diplomacy and consider what are Russian fears and their need of security guarantees... How much cheaper that would be...
Precisely -- but to utter such sense is the equivalent of a fart in the Church of the Euro ...
If you're in the EU, you're being tricked by Trump administration into doing their fighting for them. Not everyone, probably, but some of the poorer nations will be manipulated into being the next proxy. Also, because requirements of interoperability and the current realities of how NATO works, a good chunk of the money will go to US manufacturers. In the end, there will be a replenished arsenal with which to equip half a million Poles or Romanians 5 years from now, for a suicide mission little different from what Ukraine is doing now.
Historical parallels are never one-to-one, but rising defense spending at a time of rising nationalism often doesn't end well, no?
Important piece, putting things in perspective. Thank you!
Compare european demographics in 1975 and 2025.
This is a welcome dose of realism in a discourse dominated by fevers and fantasy. I would point out only that German demographics also pose a challenge, especially given that the smaller, younger cohorts voted disproportionately for anti-war parties of both the far left (Die Linke) and far right (AfD). If the "radical centrists" elected primarily by pensioners ask the young to go to war, will they?
Maybe a little diplomacy is in order to bring Russia back into normal relations as an equal within a wider European security framework unseen since the Dreikaiserbund or, before that, the Concert of Europe? Unfortunately I don't see a Bismarck, let alone a Metternich, on the European horizon ...
Very good piece; although some questions remain, it addresses many issues not clear to many of us.
A further point - the passing dismissal of the early 1980s peace movement could mislead: there was an emergency due to the competition in intermediate-range missiles, which partly through the movement’s response led to the end of the Cold War, as I argue in my new history, The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament https://www.agendapub.com/page/detail/the-campaign-for-nuclear-disarmament/?k=9781788217774
How does the Chartbook numbering work? Why is this number 360?
My guess is the 300 series are Tooze's own reflections; the 600 series are compliation from various articles in the public domain that caught Adam Tooze's eye (including those artisitic ventures)...