Caution is advised for sweeping conclusions on equities.
First, look at countries without their inevestability haircuts as well as the indexers numbers. Sure., some are SOEs that don't even act like public companies - but many do. Will we see more of EM business end up in the float? Odds are decent that we will, though momentum has obviously slowed.
The 100 year charts, with typical sector definitions and float restrictions, is probably more noise than signal. Sears. GE, IBM, Avon, Chrysler, TRW, Seagate - were a few of the °solid buy & hold° companies I worked with. But the internet happened and solids started melting.
For me - base years< 30 years ago, to around 1994 are the signal. Dale Jorgenson and Bob Gordon can hugely inform the analysis then, too. Trying KLEMS industry classifications (globally if complete) or Damodaran's would also be interesting.
Google and Facebook are advertising, Amazon is retail, Microsoft is enterprise software, Tesla is battery. All with embedded real options on AI. But also with embedded social licenses (about as costly as cable licenses once were, i.e. free) which allow them to ubiquitously mine (along with their global brethren) choices of most humans on the planet. NFL and NBA rights, denovo big budget movie studios - who can outbid the monetization monsters? Andreeson said software would eat the world. Sorta right. MONETIZATION MONSTERS SANS GUARDRAILS own the buffet now. If tech was going to sell to other industries to boost their customers productivity (a 90's theory) the sector charts you showed would make more sense. But tech is still eating their prospective customers.
In short, the devil is in the details when equity strategizing. People like the now deceased Barton Biggs and Byron Wein embraced this. But power today is in indexers, quants, and algo's. A long way of saying - the story of what the internet/Ai will do to equity markets, returns, sectors, Em's, and productivity…is too uncertain for century long extrapolations. But it sure is fascinating to imagine where it's going!
Some really interesting charts.
Caution is advised for sweeping conclusions on equities.
First, look at countries without their inevestability haircuts as well as the indexers numbers. Sure., some are SOEs that don't even act like public companies - but many do. Will we see more of EM business end up in the float? Odds are decent that we will, though momentum has obviously slowed.
The 100 year charts, with typical sector definitions and float restrictions, is probably more noise than signal. Sears. GE, IBM, Avon, Chrysler, TRW, Seagate - were a few of the °solid buy & hold° companies I worked with. But the internet happened and solids started melting.
For me - base years< 30 years ago, to around 1994 are the signal. Dale Jorgenson and Bob Gordon can hugely inform the analysis then, too. Trying KLEMS industry classifications (globally if complete) or Damodaran's would also be interesting.
Google and Facebook are advertising, Amazon is retail, Microsoft is enterprise software, Tesla is battery. All with embedded real options on AI. But also with embedded social licenses (about as costly as cable licenses once were, i.e. free) which allow them to ubiquitously mine (along with their global brethren) choices of most humans on the planet. NFL and NBA rights, denovo big budget movie studios - who can outbid the monetization monsters? Andreeson said software would eat the world. Sorta right. MONETIZATION MONSTERS SANS GUARDRAILS own the buffet now. If tech was going to sell to other industries to boost their customers productivity (a 90's theory) the sector charts you showed would make more sense. But tech is still eating their prospective customers.
In short, the devil is in the details when equity strategizing. People like the now deceased Barton Biggs and Byron Wein embraced this. But power today is in indexers, quants, and algo's. A long way of saying - the story of what the internet/Ai will do to equity markets, returns, sectors, Em's, and productivity…is too uncertain for century long extrapolations. But it sure is fascinating to imagine where it's going!