The war in Ukraine has become a battle of material and in a jarring inversion of the familiar balance the “Western side” does not have the upper hand. Even if funds are available, both the Europeans and American producers lack the capacity to manufacture the munitions Ukraine desperately needs.
Empirical evidence that sanctions don't work is simply overwhelming. As Iranian jokes these days goes, first the US sanctioned Iran to stop them producing missiles, now they sanction them to stop selling those missiles to Russia.
Interesting methodology but the conclusions are weak.
Among other things: any machine imported in the past year or even two, would have minimal to no effect on the ongoing Russian lead in manufacturing. This lead existed long before today, and this detail is trivially uncovered by any marginally expert estimation of the production capacity of any given CNC machine. Perhaps this is in the actual report.
Furthermore, the focus on machinery is still wrong albeit getting closer to being of use as compared to the ludicrous over-focus on electronics because the sheer scale of input materials is actually the likely critical factor.
The US EPA has been tracking nitric acid production, for example, as well as the US explosives industry because of the critical role nitric acid plays in the production of almost all forms of explosives. The 1976 EPA report on the US explosives industry in 1971 showed that 198 bcm of natural gas (along with plenty of other materials like oil products, coal, electricity etc) was used to produce 76 billion grams of explosives. If we convert the aggregate output by 10 kg per 155mm artillery shell and make a straight line approximation that all of the output explosives were say, TNT or comparable 155mm artillery shell component, this means the entire US explosives industry during the Vietnam war was producing roughly 7.6 million 155mm shell-equivalents.
The production of 4 million 155mm shells, therefore, requires in the order of 104 bcm of natural gas.
Given that Europe's supply of natural gas has declined annually by at least the 55 bcm of Nordstream, and that the entire US annual consumption of natural gas is in the order of 825 bcm - 104 bcm of mostly new consumption is a massive impact on the US and European energy ecosystems.
Or put another way: the Russian natural gas that used to power European industry and consumers is likely now going towards to military explosives production needed to win the war in Ukraine.
I am not saying it is impossible that for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity; I am saying it is impossible for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity without very significant societal sacrifice, not to mention a fundamental restructuring of Western military industrial practices.
I believe Rhodus Intelligence would more productively turn their talents to discovering exactly why the F-35 is incapable of combat operations, exactly why the US/NATO is incapable of producing artillery shells, gun barrels, tanks that work, and exactly why the USN is incapable of producing an updated LCM at reasonable cost, much less a successor to the Arleigh Burke DDG, or a modern missile Corvette for inshore operations.
I've been saying this for years--that western militaries are basically incapable of winning an armed conflict because there is simply too much corruption, and the whole military industrial complex is so bloated, driven primarily by profit and the production of propaganda rather than any tactical or strategic wisdom. Billions will always be misdirected toward the production of useless equipment like manned fighter aircraft because Lockheed Martin etc. lobby for the funding of these projects, and politicians acquiesce because these flashy projects make for good propaganda i.e. flyovers at football games, which are necessary to distract from the reports of their soldiers raping children before burning them alive in the Middle East.
Americans do not understand the history, economy, sociology, or religion of Russians. Their culture has been turned into a sick joke by the media and the educational system. They are a convenient "weak enemy", constantly belittled and sanctioned as we strive to project and enhance our own image.
UK-wise the solution is simple - abolish the triple lock, carve out a portion of funds to reform the MoD, and use the rest to create ammunition manufacturing plants in places like Wales and the Northeast that lack easy commuting links to London/Manchester/Birmingham etc
As with electronics, PRC was already the global leader in modern metalworking tools. West depends on PRC supply chain across the board, but the reverse true for only a handful of items. Thus ends discussion of sanctions.
What happened is that Chinese tool exporters, who dominate the last graph in the article, get their own capital equipment paid off in record time. Plus they can invest in their own R&D without risk, having a well funded market all to themselves. The rate at which the Siemens product line gets priced out of the rest of the global market will now increase. EU policy FTW
The robustness of Russian military gear makes one think that extreme precission and complexities of design are not a feature, because they can easily become a bug.
As such, all these ideas that Russians wouldn't be able to pull it out without modern western technology is just another straw that the sinking west is grasping at.
In the US, the Uniparty always wins, since the Uniparty stands for the present plutocratic demagogic republic. Nothing ever changes in the US. For Russians, life has changed for the better since Putin entered the political scene in 2000. And now, with German tanks facing Russia again, the rallying around the flag and the leadership is stronger than ever. And yes, people, wherever they are, will not get bored of a good leadership, which the west hasn't seen in many decades now.
Rallying around the leader during wartime is a fairly common phenomenon, certainly not exclusive to the Russians. Hell, even Shrub had 80%+ approval ratings after September 11. Anecdotally, turnout was indeed high and support for Putin strong. Many people who would otherwise not be bothered to vote did so on this occasion to express solidarity and unity. Russia is truly turning into the bogeyman that the West has made it out to be all these years, militarized, united and imbued with a sense of mission.
That's true, it's also true that it's easier to rack up the points in an election if you put your political opponents in jail and have them murdered.
Also, we should be clearer about this "mission" thing, because "militarized, united and imbued with a sense of mission" could also describe the people of Germany in 1940. Building national unity through a program of conquest is at least as old as Alexander the Great.
"militarized" better describes the US, with its over 800 military bases overseas, with many more in the US, with military being one of the main jobs, etc., etc., etc. Russia is just staring this monster in the eye and building itself up to confront it.
Russian Federation is not a democracy, it is a "Federal Republic". It uses elections with its particular methodology, which is more sophisticated (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Russia) and pluralistic than in the US, where most of the individual states (as per the US Constitution) have enacted legislation than makes impossible on technical grounds the emergence of a third party. Also, in the US, the president is not directly elected by the population, so please, don't talk about healthy (or unhealthy) democracy and have as a paragon of it the sickly body of the US plutocratic demagogic republic masquerading as a democracy.
Does everyone else see how this works? Point out that Russia is a dictatorship that doesn't have free elections, because Putin's opposition is either jailed or murdered, and we get back a lecture in all the faults of American democracy, which are real and many.
This is such a tired routine that it's even got a name, "whataboutism." Back in the days of Stalin, it was common for Soviet apologists in the US to point to US racism, Jim Crow, etc. as a convenient way to change the subject. Because that's the goal, to NEVER respond directly to valid criticism of the Soviets or of Russia, but just to get people talking about something - anything - else.
What oposition? And who's been killed? If you refer to Navalny, he was marginal in Russia, trumped all over in the west. And Budanov, the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Chief has declared publicly that Navalny (with a known record of many ailments and copious medication history) died of a blood clot, in a very timely manner for the western propaganda. You probably never herd of the "cui prodest?" term, eh?!
Yeah, I've read enough history to know this is exactly the rhetoric we got from American communists when Stalin was in charge. I'm not saying you're a communist, I don't really care, I think you're just someone who really likes Strong Men.
There is a need for good leadership in the alliance between hoi polloi and tyranny, in order to confront and win over oligarchy. Even marxian dialectic-materialism phylosophy has recognized the role of personalities in history. Heck, the US is always in the look-out for "personalities" that play to their tune: they loved Boris Yeltsin...
Thanks for your honesty, you're admitting here that you see a need for a dictator. So elsewhere in this discussion when you boast of the "sophisticated" election system they have in Russia, we can all see that's bullshit, you just want the dictator to win, the elections are beside the point, they're just cover for the dictatorship that you openly admit you want.
You should brush up your Aristotle, mister, and maybe you'll get my point.
Getting to a type of system the 5 Iroqouis nations had in northern North America in 1600-1700s still requires some leadership. Also, brush up on the origins of the function of "dictator" a bit... This will help as well. If not you (likely not), then others reading the comments section.
This is an extraordinary report signaling Russia's advantage in weaponry over the West. Ukraine's survival and the West's wherewithal to overcome this shortfall are even more in question than we
Then Rhodus Intelligence might also turn their hand to investigating exactly why the RN's shipyards are incapable of building and installing propellor shaft couplings onto their CVs.
They might also investigate exactly how the Iranians mastered single crystal fan blade technolgies, and now overhaul boeing airliners doing C level refurbishment thereof, with their latest customer being AeroFlot...
Remember, economists have long argued that production processes 'finding' their most productive location (ie the cheapest) is not only perfectly natural it's also preferred. So i guess that's why there are so few American tool producers in the list above...
While Europe's climate worriers, including most economists (they're decent middle class people after all, who doesn't want to save a planet by buying a Tesla - perhaps a little bit subsidized but most economist also believe in gov nudging) promote the idea of a bigger EU services industry. High energy prices must help EU manufacturing 'find' its newest best production locations.
That certainly is underway now. Today in the Dutch financial daily it says that Dutch companies moving elsewhere because of our high energy prices is not a viable strategy anymore since most EU elec grids are at their limits (in the NL housing, infrastructure and new industry are already on hold, not just from the grid maxing out but also because of fundamentalist nitrogen policies - 300 x more stringent than in other EU nations...). So now were at: more EU/NL gov subsidies or moving to Vietnam, india or...China?
Finally, carbon taxes at the EU border create 'just' prices* so that imports will become available only to...probably those climate worriers and most economists.
The silly thing is that western production processes are much more energy efficient and cleaner:
Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits
* We don't have just prices at the moment while leading a just life is the newest secular fad. Problem is, at least in the NL, that it's the voters of save-the-planet-parties who for instance fly the most and the farthest. So in avaition perhaps just pricing will remain somewhat underwhelming...
Sorry, is "climate denialism" inaccurate? Climate change is real? And we should do something about it? Or not? Seems like you could be a little more clear on this point and leave out all the squid ink.
I have a simple question: what was the cause of the sudden collapse of the machining industry in Russia after 1989? Was it because that it had been outsourced to the east european countries, not longer under there sphere of influence? Simon
The full report mentions this. The machining industry of Russia collapsed together with the Soviet Union. There was very little money in the industry, since the government wasn't buying any weapons. As a result, the industry shrunk 90% and the apprenticeship programmes were gone - low wages meant no more young people in the industry for the old experts to pass their knowledge.
You know, if the US is worried about running out of bombs, maybe murdering fewer Palestinians could be an option?
There is one problem that in this case can not be underestimated:
Read the following; take your time, there are many of them.
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/prominent-companies-founded-by-jews-in-america
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Jewish_American_businesspeople?wprov=sfla1
https://pdf.defence.pk/threads/six-jewish-companies-own-96-of-the-world-s-media.35800/
Wow, AT just gets everybody here, doesn't he? Climate deniers, Russia apologists and even antisemites like you.
Empirical evidence that sanctions don't work is simply overwhelming. As Iranian jokes these days goes, first the US sanctioned Iran to stop them producing missiles, now they sanction them to stop selling those missiles to Russia.
Interesting methodology but the conclusions are weak.
Among other things: any machine imported in the past year or even two, would have minimal to no effect on the ongoing Russian lead in manufacturing. This lead existed long before today, and this detail is trivially uncovered by any marginally expert estimation of the production capacity of any given CNC machine. Perhaps this is in the actual report.
Furthermore, the focus on machinery is still wrong albeit getting closer to being of use as compared to the ludicrous over-focus on electronics because the sheer scale of input materials is actually the likely critical factor.
The US EPA has been tracking nitric acid production, for example, as well as the US explosives industry because of the critical role nitric acid plays in the production of almost all forms of explosives. The 1976 EPA report on the US explosives industry in 1971 showed that 198 bcm of natural gas (along with plenty of other materials like oil products, coal, electricity etc) was used to produce 76 billion grams of explosives. If we convert the aggregate output by 10 kg per 155mm artillery shell and make a straight line approximation that all of the output explosives were say, TNT or comparable 155mm artillery shell component, this means the entire US explosives industry during the Vietnam war was producing roughly 7.6 million 155mm shell-equivalents.
The production of 4 million 155mm shells, therefore, requires in the order of 104 bcm of natural gas.
Given that Europe's supply of natural gas has declined annually by at least the 55 bcm of Nordstream, and that the entire US annual consumption of natural gas is in the order of 825 bcm - 104 bcm of mostly new consumption is a massive impact on the US and European energy ecosystems.
Or put another way: the Russian natural gas that used to power European industry and consumers is likely now going towards to military explosives production needed to win the war in Ukraine.
I am not saying it is impossible that for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity; I am saying it is impossible for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity without very significant societal sacrifice, not to mention a fundamental restructuring of Western military industrial practices.
I believe Rhodus Intelligence would more productively turn their talents to discovering exactly why the F-35 is incapable of combat operations, exactly why the US/NATO is incapable of producing artillery shells, gun barrels, tanks that work, and exactly why the USN is incapable of producing an updated LCM at reasonable cost, much less a successor to the Arleigh Burke DDG, or a modern missile Corvette for inshore operations.
INDY
I've been saying this for years--that western militaries are basically incapable of winning an armed conflict because there is simply too much corruption, and the whole military industrial complex is so bloated, driven primarily by profit and the production of propaganda rather than any tactical or strategic wisdom. Billions will always be misdirected toward the production of useless equipment like manned fighter aircraft because Lockheed Martin etc. lobby for the funding of these projects, and politicians acquiesce because these flashy projects make for good propaganda i.e. flyovers at football games, which are necessary to distract from the reports of their soldiers raping children before burning them alive in the Middle East.
Americans do not understand the history, economy, sociology, or religion of Russians. Their culture has been turned into a sick joke by the media and the educational system. They are a convenient "weak enemy", constantly belittled and sanctioned as we strive to project and enhance our own image.
UK-wise the solution is simple - abolish the triple lock, carve out a portion of funds to reform the MoD, and use the rest to create ammunition manufacturing plants in places like Wales and the Northeast that lack easy commuting links to London/Manchester/Birmingham etc
As with electronics, PRC was already the global leader in modern metalworking tools. West depends on PRC supply chain across the board, but the reverse true for only a handful of items. Thus ends discussion of sanctions.
What happened is that Chinese tool exporters, who dominate the last graph in the article, get their own capital equipment paid off in record time. Plus they can invest in their own R&D without risk, having a well funded market all to themselves. The rate at which the Siemens product line gets priced out of the rest of the global market will now increase. EU policy FTW
The robustness of Russian military gear makes one think that extreme precission and complexities of design are not a feature, because they can easily become a bug.
As such, all these ideas that Russians wouldn't be able to pull it out without modern western technology is just another straw that the sinking west is grasping at.
Just like the "robustness" of Russian elections, they reliably produce the same result - Putin - every time!
Not like those unreliable American elections where you never know for sure how it's going to turn out.
In the US, the Uniparty always wins, since the Uniparty stands for the present plutocratic demagogic republic. Nothing ever changes in the US. For Russians, life has changed for the better since Putin entered the political scene in 2000. And now, with German tanks facing Russia again, the rallying around the flag and the leadership is stronger than ever. And yes, people, wherever they are, will not get bored of a good leadership, which the west hasn't seen in many decades now.
If the elections were a sham why did Ukraine launch the suicidal Belgorod attacks to try and influence them.
Why does the CIA try to influence the elections?
Ah, the old "whatabout." Nice to see the classics still being used.
And you must be thrilled with the 88% of the vote that Putin won, a totally believable result indicative of a healthy, functioning democracy.
Rallying around the leader during wartime is a fairly common phenomenon, certainly not exclusive to the Russians. Hell, even Shrub had 80%+ approval ratings after September 11. Anecdotally, turnout was indeed high and support for Putin strong. Many people who would otherwise not be bothered to vote did so on this occasion to express solidarity and unity. Russia is truly turning into the bogeyman that the West has made it out to be all these years, militarized, united and imbued with a sense of mission.
That's true, it's also true that it's easier to rack up the points in an election if you put your political opponents in jail and have them murdered.
Also, we should be clearer about this "mission" thing, because "militarized, united and imbued with a sense of mission" could also describe the people of Germany in 1940. Building national unity through a program of conquest is at least as old as Alexander the Great.
"militarized" better describes the US, with its over 800 military bases overseas, with many more in the US, with military being one of the main jobs, etc., etc., etc. Russia is just staring this monster in the eye and building itself up to confront it.
Russian Federation is not a democracy, it is a "Federal Republic". It uses elections with its particular methodology, which is more sophisticated (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Russia) and pluralistic than in the US, where most of the individual states (as per the US Constitution) have enacted legislation than makes impossible on technical grounds the emergence of a third party. Also, in the US, the president is not directly elected by the population, so please, don't talk about healthy (or unhealthy) democracy and have as a paragon of it the sickly body of the US plutocratic demagogic republic masquerading as a democracy.
Does everyone else see how this works? Point out that Russia is a dictatorship that doesn't have free elections, because Putin's opposition is either jailed or murdered, and we get back a lecture in all the faults of American democracy, which are real and many.
This is such a tired routine that it's even got a name, "whataboutism." Back in the days of Stalin, it was common for Soviet apologists in the US to point to US racism, Jim Crow, etc. as a convenient way to change the subject. Because that's the goal, to NEVER respond directly to valid criticism of the Soviets or of Russia, but just to get people talking about something - anything - else.
What oposition? And who's been killed? If you refer to Navalny, he was marginal in Russia, trumped all over in the west. And Budanov, the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Chief has declared publicly that Navalny (with a known record of many ailments and copious medication history) died of a blood clot, in a very timely manner for the western propaganda. You probably never herd of the "cui prodest?" term, eh?!
You sound like someone who likes a weak man, like Trump or Biden
Yeah, I've read enough history to know this is exactly the rhetoric we got from American communists when Stalin was in charge. I'm not saying you're a communist, I don't really care, I think you're just someone who really likes Strong Men.
There is a need for good leadership in the alliance between hoi polloi and tyranny, in order to confront and win over oligarchy. Even marxian dialectic-materialism phylosophy has recognized the role of personalities in history. Heck, the US is always in the look-out for "personalities" that play to their tune: they loved Boris Yeltsin...
Thanks for your honesty, you're admitting here that you see a need for a dictator. So elsewhere in this discussion when you boast of the "sophisticated" election system they have in Russia, we can all see that's bullshit, you just want the dictator to win, the elections are beside the point, they're just cover for the dictatorship that you openly admit you want.
You should brush up your Aristotle, mister, and maybe you'll get my point.
Getting to a type of system the 5 Iroqouis nations had in northern North America in 1600-1700s still requires some leadership. Also, brush up on the origins of the function of "dictator" a bit... This will help as well. If not you (likely not), then others reading the comments section.
This is an extraordinary report signaling Russia's advantage in weaponry over the West. Ukraine's survival and the West's wherewithal to overcome this shortfall are even more in question than we
knew.
Then Rhodus Intelligence might also turn their hand to investigating exactly why the RN's shipyards are incapable of building and installing propellor shaft couplings onto their CVs.
They might also investigate exactly how the Iranians mastered single crystal fan blade technolgies, and now overhaul boeing airliners doing C level refurbishment thereof, with their latest customer being AeroFlot...
INDY
I forget.... exactly when did NATO declare war on Russia??
Otherwise....
The entirety of the premis of this post is invalid...
Buying machine tools should be encouraged. Creates jobs...
Of course, that means accepting that the entirety of the FSU is under the suzeranty and dominion of Russia!
BTW, did you congratulate Putin on his re-election with 87% of the vote??
INDY
Remember, economists have long argued that production processes 'finding' their most productive location (ie the cheapest) is not only perfectly natural it's also preferred. So i guess that's why there are so few American tool producers in the list above...
While Europe's climate worriers, including most economists (they're decent middle class people after all, who doesn't want to save a planet by buying a Tesla - perhaps a little bit subsidized but most economist also believe in gov nudging) promote the idea of a bigger EU services industry. High energy prices must help EU manufacturing 'find' its newest best production locations.
That certainly is underway now. Today in the Dutch financial daily it says that Dutch companies moving elsewhere because of our high energy prices is not a viable strategy anymore since most EU elec grids are at their limits (in the NL housing, infrastructure and new industry are already on hold, not just from the grid maxing out but also because of fundamentalist nitrogen policies - 300 x more stringent than in other EU nations...). So now were at: more EU/NL gov subsidies or moving to Vietnam, india or...China?
Finally, carbon taxes at the EU border create 'just' prices* so that imports will become available only to...probably those climate worriers and most economists.
The silly thing is that western production processes are much more energy efficient and cleaner:
Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gailtverberg_advanced-economies-will-be-especially-hurt-activity-7175296275825709056-EhDj/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
* We don't have just prices at the moment while leading a just life is the newest secular fad. Problem is, at least in the NL, that it's the voters of save-the-planet-parties who for instance fly the most and the farthest. So in avaition perhaps just pricing will remain somewhat underwhelming...
Took me a second read-through, what may look to some like incoherent nonsense is really just simple climate denialism.
Such a thorough rebuke and then you leave out 'whataboutism'? Next time have a third read.
Maybe "climate obscurantism" would be more accurate, that seems to be the new thing now that outright denial has become untenable.
Sorry, is "climate denialism" inaccurate? Climate change is real? And we should do something about it? Or not? Seems like you could be a little more clear on this point and leave out all the squid ink.
I have a simple question: what was the cause of the sudden collapse of the machining industry in Russia after 1989? Was it because that it had been outsourced to the east european countries, not longer under there sphere of influence? Simon
The full report mentions this. The machining industry of Russia collapsed together with the Soviet Union. There was very little money in the industry, since the government wasn't buying any weapons. As a result, the industry shrunk 90% and the apprenticeship programmes were gone - low wages meant no more young people in the industry for the old experts to pass their knowledge.
Very good material. I am very tempted to take a deep dive into the Rhodes report!
I forget.... exactly when did NATO declare war on Russia??
Otherwise....
The entirety of the premis of this post is invalid...
Buying machine tools should be encouraged. Creates jobs...
Of course, that means accepting that the entirety of the FSU is under the suzeranty and dominion of Russia!
BTW, did you congratulate Putin on his re-election with 87% of the vote??
INDY
I'm sure that 13% will be hearing from Russian State Security very soon.