The war in Ukraine has become a battle of material and in a jarring inversion of the familiar balance the “Western side” does not have the upper hand. Even if funds are available, both the Europeans and American producers lack the capacity to manufacture the munitions Ukraine desperately needs.
Empirical evidence that sanctions don't work is simply overwhelming. As Iranian jokes these days goes, first the US sanctioned Iran to stop them producing missiles, now they sanction them to stop selling those missiles to Russia.
Interesting methodology but the conclusions are weak.
Among other things: any machine imported in the past year or even two, would have minimal to no effect on the ongoing Russian lead in manufacturing. This lead existed long before today, and this detail is trivially uncovered by any marginally expert estimation of the production capacity of any given CNC machine. Perhaps this is in the actual report.
Furthermore, the focus on machinery is still wrong albeit getting closer to being of use as compared to the ludicrous over-focus on electronics because the sheer scale of input materials is actually the likely critical factor.
The US EPA has been tracking nitric acid production, for example, as well as the US explosives industry because of the critical role nitric acid plays in the production of almost all forms of explosives. The 1976 EPA report on the US explosives industry in 1971 showed that 198 bcm of natural gas (along with plenty of other materials like oil products, coal, electricity etc) was used to produce 76 billion grams of explosives. If we convert the aggregate output by 10 kg per 155mm artillery shell and make a straight line approximation that all of the output explosives were say, TNT or comparable 155mm artillery shell component, this means the entire US explosives industry during the Vietnam war was producing roughly 7.6 million 155mm shell-equivalents.
The production of 4 million 155mm shells, therefore, requires in the order of 104 bcm of natural gas.
Given that Europe's supply of natural gas has declined annually by at least the 55 bcm of Nordstream, and that the entire US annual consumption of natural gas is in the order of 825 bcm - 104 bcm of mostly new consumption is a massive impact on the US and European energy ecosystems.
Or put another way: the Russian natural gas that used to power European industry and consumers is likely now going towards to military explosives production needed to win the war in Ukraine.
I am not saying it is impossible that for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity; I am saying it is impossible for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity without very significant societal sacrifice, not to mention a fundamental restructuring of Western military industrial practices.
I believe Rhodus Intelligence would more productively turn their talents to discovering exactly why the F-35 is incapable of combat operations, exactly why the US/NATO is incapable of producing artillery shells, gun barrels, tanks that work, and exactly why the USN is incapable of producing an updated LCM at reasonable cost, much less a successor to the Arleigh Burke DDG, or a modern missile Corvette for inshore operations.
I've been saying this for years--that western militaries are basically incapable of winning an armed conflict because there is simply too much corruption, and the whole military industrial complex is so bloated, driven primarily by profit and the production of propaganda rather than any tactical or strategic wisdom. Billions will always be misdirected toward the production of useless equipment like manned fighter aircraft because Lockheed Martin etc. lobby for the funding of these projects, and politicians acquiesce because these flashy projects make for good propaganda i.e. flyovers at football games, which are necessary to distract from the reports of their soldiers raping children before burning them alive in the Middle East.
Americans do not understand the history, economy, sociology, or religion of Russians. Their culture has been turned into a sick joke by the media and the educational system. They are a convenient "weak enemy", constantly belittled and sanctioned as we strive to project and enhance our own image.
UK-wise the solution is simple - abolish the triple lock, carve out a portion of funds to reform the MoD, and use the rest to create ammunition manufacturing plants in places like Wales and the Northeast that lack easy commuting links to London/Manchester/Birmingham etc
As with electronics, PRC was already the global leader in modern metalworking tools. West depends on PRC supply chain across the board, but the reverse true for only a handful of items. Thus ends discussion of sanctions.
What happened is that Chinese tool exporters, who dominate the last graph in the article, get their own capital equipment paid off in record time. Plus they can invest in their own R&D without risk, having a well funded market all to themselves. The rate at which the Siemens product line gets priced out of the rest of the global market will now increase. EU policy FTW
The robustness of Russian military gear makes one think that extreme precission and complexities of design are not a feature, because they can easily become a bug.
As such, all these ideas that Russians wouldn't be able to pull it out without modern western technology is just another straw that the sinking west is grasping at.
This is an extraordinary report signaling Russia's advantage in weaponry over the West. Ukraine's survival and the West's wherewithal to overcome this shortfall are even more in question than we
Then Rhodus Intelligence might also turn their hand to investigating exactly why the RN's shipyards are incapable of building and installing propellor shaft couplings onto their CVs.
They might also investigate exactly how the Iranians mastered single crystal fan blade technolgies, and now overhaul boeing airliners doing C level refurbishment thereof, with their latest customer being AeroFlot...
Remember, economists have long argued that production processes 'finding' their most productive location (ie the cheapest) is not only perfectly natural it's also preferred. So i guess that's why there are so few American tool producers in the list above...
While Europe's climate worriers, including most economists (they're decent middle class people after all, who doesn't want to save a planet by buying a Tesla - perhaps a little bit subsidized but most economist also believe in gov nudging) promote the idea of a bigger EU services industry. High energy prices must help EU manufacturing 'find' its newest best production locations.
That certainly is underway now. Today in the Dutch financial daily it says that Dutch companies moving elsewhere because of our high energy prices is not a viable strategy anymore since most EU elec grids are at their limits (in the NL housing, infrastructure and new industry are already on hold, not just from the grid maxing out but also because of fundamentalist nitrogen policies - 300 x more stringent than in other EU nations...). So now were at: more EU/NL gov subsidies or moving to Vietnam, india or...China?
Finally, carbon taxes at the EU border create 'just' prices* so that imports will become available only to...probably those climate worriers and most economists.
The silly thing is that western production processes are much more energy efficient and cleaner:
Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits
* We don't have just prices at the moment while leading a just life is the newest secular fad. Problem is, at least in the NL, that it's the voters of save-the-planet-parties who for instance fly the most and the farthest. So in avaition perhaps just pricing will remain somewhat underwhelming...
I have a simple question: what was the cause of the sudden collapse of the machining industry in Russia after 1989? Was it because that it had been outsourced to the east european countries, not longer under there sphere of influence? Simon
You know, if the US is worried about running out of bombs, maybe murdering fewer Palestinians could be an option?
Empirical evidence that sanctions don't work is simply overwhelming. As Iranian jokes these days goes, first the US sanctioned Iran to stop them producing missiles, now they sanction them to stop selling those missiles to Russia.
Interesting methodology but the conclusions are weak.
Among other things: any machine imported in the past year or even two, would have minimal to no effect on the ongoing Russian lead in manufacturing. This lead existed long before today, and this detail is trivially uncovered by any marginally expert estimation of the production capacity of any given CNC machine. Perhaps this is in the actual report.
Furthermore, the focus on machinery is still wrong albeit getting closer to being of use as compared to the ludicrous over-focus on electronics because the sheer scale of input materials is actually the likely critical factor.
The US EPA has been tracking nitric acid production, for example, as well as the US explosives industry because of the critical role nitric acid plays in the production of almost all forms of explosives. The 1976 EPA report on the US explosives industry in 1971 showed that 198 bcm of natural gas (along with plenty of other materials like oil products, coal, electricity etc) was used to produce 76 billion grams of explosives. If we convert the aggregate output by 10 kg per 155mm artillery shell and make a straight line approximation that all of the output explosives were say, TNT or comparable 155mm artillery shell component, this means the entire US explosives industry during the Vietnam war was producing roughly 7.6 million 155mm shell-equivalents.
The production of 4 million 155mm shells, therefore, requires in the order of 104 bcm of natural gas.
Given that Europe's supply of natural gas has declined annually by at least the 55 bcm of Nordstream, and that the entire US annual consumption of natural gas is in the order of 825 bcm - 104 bcm of mostly new consumption is a massive impact on the US and European energy ecosystems.
Or put another way: the Russian natural gas that used to power European industry and consumers is likely now going towards to military explosives production needed to win the war in Ukraine.
I am not saying it is impossible that for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity; I am saying it is impossible for the West to re-orient to match Russian arms production capacity without very significant societal sacrifice, not to mention a fundamental restructuring of Western military industrial practices.
I believe Rhodus Intelligence would more productively turn their talents to discovering exactly why the F-35 is incapable of combat operations, exactly why the US/NATO is incapable of producing artillery shells, gun barrels, tanks that work, and exactly why the USN is incapable of producing an updated LCM at reasonable cost, much less a successor to the Arleigh Burke DDG, or a modern missile Corvette for inshore operations.
INDY
I've been saying this for years--that western militaries are basically incapable of winning an armed conflict because there is simply too much corruption, and the whole military industrial complex is so bloated, driven primarily by profit and the production of propaganda rather than any tactical or strategic wisdom. Billions will always be misdirected toward the production of useless equipment like manned fighter aircraft because Lockheed Martin etc. lobby for the funding of these projects, and politicians acquiesce because these flashy projects make for good propaganda i.e. flyovers at football games, which are necessary to distract from the reports of their soldiers raping children before burning them alive in the Middle East.
Americans do not understand the history, economy, sociology, or religion of Russians. Their culture has been turned into a sick joke by the media and the educational system. They are a convenient "weak enemy", constantly belittled and sanctioned as we strive to project and enhance our own image.
UK-wise the solution is simple - abolish the triple lock, carve out a portion of funds to reform the MoD, and use the rest to create ammunition manufacturing plants in places like Wales and the Northeast that lack easy commuting links to London/Manchester/Birmingham etc
As with electronics, PRC was already the global leader in modern metalworking tools. West depends on PRC supply chain across the board, but the reverse true for only a handful of items. Thus ends discussion of sanctions.
What happened is that Chinese tool exporters, who dominate the last graph in the article, get their own capital equipment paid off in record time. Plus they can invest in their own R&D without risk, having a well funded market all to themselves. The rate at which the Siemens product line gets priced out of the rest of the global market will now increase. EU policy FTW
The robustness of Russian military gear makes one think that extreme precission and complexities of design are not a feature, because they can easily become a bug.
As such, all these ideas that Russians wouldn't be able to pull it out without modern western technology is just another straw that the sinking west is grasping at.
This is an extraordinary report signaling Russia's advantage in weaponry over the West. Ukraine's survival and the West's wherewithal to overcome this shortfall are even more in question than we
knew.
Then Rhodus Intelligence might also turn their hand to investigating exactly why the RN's shipyards are incapable of building and installing propellor shaft couplings onto their CVs.
They might also investigate exactly how the Iranians mastered single crystal fan blade technolgies, and now overhaul boeing airliners doing C level refurbishment thereof, with their latest customer being AeroFlot...
INDY
I forget.... exactly when did NATO declare war on Russia??
Otherwise....
The entirety of the premis of this post is invalid...
Buying machine tools should be encouraged. Creates jobs...
Of course, that means accepting that the entirety of the FSU is under the suzeranty and dominion of Russia!
BTW, did you congratulate Putin on his re-election with 87% of the vote??
INDY
Remember, economists have long argued that production processes 'finding' their most productive location (ie the cheapest) is not only perfectly natural it's also preferred. So i guess that's why there are so few American tool producers in the list above...
While Europe's climate worriers, including most economists (they're decent middle class people after all, who doesn't want to save a planet by buying a Tesla - perhaps a little bit subsidized but most economist also believe in gov nudging) promote the idea of a bigger EU services industry. High energy prices must help EU manufacturing 'find' its newest best production locations.
That certainly is underway now. Today in the Dutch financial daily it says that Dutch companies moving elsewhere because of our high energy prices is not a viable strategy anymore since most EU elec grids are at their limits (in the NL housing, infrastructure and new industry are already on hold, not just from the grid maxing out but also because of fundamentalist nitrogen policies - 300 x more stringent than in other EU nations...). So now were at: more EU/NL gov subsidies or moving to Vietnam, india or...China?
Finally, carbon taxes at the EU border create 'just' prices* so that imports will become available only to...probably those climate worriers and most economists.
The silly thing is that western production processes are much more energy efficient and cleaner:
Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gailtverberg_advanced-economies-will-be-especially-hurt-activity-7175296275825709056-EhDj/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
* We don't have just prices at the moment while leading a just life is the newest secular fad. Problem is, at least in the NL, that it's the voters of save-the-planet-parties who for instance fly the most and the farthest. So in avaition perhaps just pricing will remain somewhat underwhelming...
I have a simple question: what was the cause of the sudden collapse of the machining industry in Russia after 1989? Was it because that it had been outsourced to the east european countries, not longer under there sphere of influence? Simon
Very good material. I am very tempted to take a deep dive into the Rhodes report!
I forget.... exactly when did NATO declare war on Russia??
Otherwise....
The entirety of the premis of this post is invalid...
Buying machine tools should be encouraged. Creates jobs...
Of course, that means accepting that the entirety of the FSU is under the suzeranty and dominion of Russia!
BTW, did you congratulate Putin on his re-election with 87% of the vote??
INDY