It is said that in the spring of 1945 the skies above Germany’s Ruhr industrial region cleared and the Rhine river ran blue for the first time in almost a century. British and American bombing had stopped the German economy in its tracks. Nature, briefly, healed.
It's a decline in energy consumption combined with an increase in renewables. And some of the decline in consumption is due to greater conservation and efficiency. Some of it is probably also due to a transfer of production of basic commodities like cement and steel to other countries. A thing that has happened here in the US although we haven't reached the stone age yet.
You mean the US economy that is now entirely financialized and kept alive by giant budget deficits? Yes, de-industrialization has happened here but I don’t think that’s the win you seem to think it is :)
Less about pig iron than Bayer or BASF no longer being able to afford to produce in Germany which is hundreds of thousands of well paying jobs. Germany manufacturing competes on quality but requires cheap energy. It’s the mainstay of Europe’s largest economy. Take it away and there’s little left. Also, Software is a relatively small fraction of American GDP. You must live in CA
Germany has been experiencing a manufacturing recession at least for the past year. Recessions and war related destruction of manufacturing is good for reducing carbon monoxide emissions and thus reducing climate change.
Well the essence of modernity is the means justify the ends.
- the end by the way of reindustrializing the 🇺🇸 USA to calm the angry 🇺🇸 peasants, at Germany’s expense. German firms that want to survive are relocating to the USA.
Also the End of 🇺🇸 making vassalage official and securing our Atlantic Flank, stopping those pesky Chinese from buying up Europe, and this ridiculous notion of Ostpolitik and Rapprochement with Russia. Oh, no.
You recall the point of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Germans down, and the price was the Americans in... this was a costly burden and we called in our markers.
You won’t miss electricity once you adjust. Enjoy the Turnips.
The Pastoral country life will be good for you. You can return to your Teutonic roots- of living in the forest, just as Caesar found you.
You see, we did think of a better way, just leave the thinking to us.
Yep, no electricity, just turnips. That's in the Morgenthau plan too? Does it have to be turnips, or would other root vegetables do? Is it too late to ask Morgenthau?
Maybe I misread this, but I don't see why imports of clean energy wouldn't count towards permanent emissions cuts in Germany? A lot of renewables in Europe come in the form of offshore wind, it's natural to expect that some countries have better opportunities for that than others, or make a conscious decision to become a powerhouse for neighboring countries. As long as it's reducing CO2 emissions, should we care where the electricity is coming from?
Here's the sentence I'm confused about: "Only 6 m tons of the total, less than 10 percent, was due to the expansion of renewables." But that's just counting "expansion of renewables" in Germany, there's a 26m ton cut in emissions due to imports of cleaner energy. Is this a distinction it's important to make? It's not a distinction the Earth's climate cares about.
"The nuclear exit decision was taken a generation ago and other than political troublemaking, nothing is served by wailing over spilled milk."
What nonsense. By that reasoning, we should not be crying over Global Warming at all, since we made the decision to pursue a carbon economy several generations ago. Just got to live with our stupid decisions forever, apparently. It's the German way.
One missed piece I just HAVE to mention: Emissions of fossil fuels production and transport. Sure: the emissions share of natural gas dropped slightly. But be switching from pipeline gas to LNG (partly from fracking) a multiple of former emissions was emitted in production and transport. And this part is completely hidden in the national balance of CO2-equivalent emissions.
Is this really significant? Well, yes, newer studies even point out, that using natural gas could get as worse as using coal if global emissions caused by this energy source are taken into account.
Looks almost like another step to "exporting" CO2-usage ... or at least more obfuscation is created by switching to LNG, which should be taken into account.
I think I understand the powerful impulse of businesses to seek resources and markets, and the prevailing religious orthodoxy (“go ye forth and multiply”), but I’m still kinda amazed that population control isn’t part of our resource-management toolkit.
While we struggle to move to non-toxic, non-catastrophic renewable energy, we tend to focus on SUPPLY. We could address DEMAND for energy by paying a stipend to women for each year that they defer having their first child.
There’s a 1999 Cornell University study that says: “Democratically determined population-control practices and sound resource-management policies could have the planet's 2 billion people thriving in harmony with the environment. Lacking these approaches … 12 billon miserable humans will suffer a difficult life on Earth by the year 2100.” http://news.cornell.edu/stories/1999/09/miserable-life-overcrowded-earth-2100
What happened to the comments here Adam? Time to get out of Substack, its becoming a hotbed of Fascists just like all the other US social networks. Go it alone like Molly White. You're good enough and popular enough to survive without Substack.
Don't think it's substack's fault, I would guess that the fanbase of Adam's books is probably pretty right wing/centrist, by your definition. Bookish people interested in WWII and data-based economic analysis tend not to be activist types.
Adam sometimes reaches leftish conclusions, but it's not the meat of his analysis. He presents facts that could be taken either way, based on your particular values; i.e. he is a good historian.
Oh dear, solar requires REE, and every ton of REE generates 2000 tons of toxins, including a ton of radioactive toxic thorium or uranium. So far that’s a Chinese problem, soon to be an African problem. Too many Africans anyway...
This carbon hatred is part of the religion of self loathing, and loathing of the flesh- we are carbon.
Gnostics win for now... our very bodies- and plant food (CO2) are an evil poison that must be purged.
I wonder if the actual polluters of real toxins and heavy metals and such intended this to go so far?
They of course paid for all this, not a pfennig of grant money to any is paid for any research unless it mentions Global Warming... and the ever greedy politicians and universities will say anything for money.
Especially Economists.
There will be a terrible reckoning for the Gnostics over this...
... but today their fortunes are high, and the unruly commoners crushed.
Interesting and well written article. 'The devil is in the details', and this was a very good way to tell about it.
TL;DR the german political class would slit their own children's throats if an American will pay them on the head and call them good dogs.
Yes, good compradors all of them.
?
Guess you took "DR" literally.
How is this not just a result of decline in total energy consumption? They're literally de-industrializing and developing back to the stone age.
It's a decline in energy consumption combined with an increase in renewables. And some of the decline in consumption is due to greater conservation and efficiency. Some of it is probably also due to a transfer of production of basic commodities like cement and steel to other countries. A thing that has happened here in the US although we haven't reached the stone age yet.
You mean the US economy that is now entirely financialized and kept alive by giant budget deficits? Yes, de-industrialization has happened here but I don’t think that’s the win you seem to think it is :)
It's true, we make more software and less pig iron, a clear sign of impending civilizational collapse.
Less about pig iron than Bayer or BASF no longer being able to afford to produce in Germany which is hundreds of thousands of well paying jobs. Germany manufacturing competes on quality but requires cheap energy. It’s the mainstay of Europe’s largest economy. Take it away and there’s little left. Also, Software is a relatively small fraction of American GDP. You must live in CA
OK Doomer
Germany has been experiencing a manufacturing recession at least for the past year. Recessions and war related destruction of manufacturing is good for reducing carbon monoxide emissions and thus reducing climate change.
It's a shame we can't think of some better method.
Well the essence of modernity is the means justify the ends.
- the end by the way of reindustrializing the 🇺🇸 USA to calm the angry 🇺🇸 peasants, at Germany’s expense. German firms that want to survive are relocating to the USA.
Also the End of 🇺🇸 making vassalage official and securing our Atlantic Flank, stopping those pesky Chinese from buying up Europe, and this ridiculous notion of Ostpolitik and Rapprochement with Russia. Oh, no.
You recall the point of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Germans down, and the price was the Americans in... this was a costly burden and we called in our markers.
You won’t miss electricity once you adjust. Enjoy the Turnips.
The Pastoral country life will be good for you. You can return to your Teutonic roots- of living in the forest, just as Caesar found you.
You see, we did think of a better way, just leave the thinking to us.
🇺🇸.
Germany won't have electricity any more? Wow, the things I learn here.
Not enough for factories already.
Perhaps you’ve heard of the Morgenthau plan?
You’re seeing it happen.
Yep, no electricity, just turnips. That's in the Morgenthau plan too? Does it have to be turnips, or would other root vegetables do? Is it too late to ask Morgenthau?
I'm also into Horseradish and Rutabagas myself.
Good luck to the "stoplight coalition" I guess, but I don't like their chances over the next 18 months ...
Might be nice to live in a country that has more than 2 colors (red & blue)
Maybe I misread this, but I don't see why imports of clean energy wouldn't count towards permanent emissions cuts in Germany? A lot of renewables in Europe come in the form of offshore wind, it's natural to expect that some countries have better opportunities for that than others, or make a conscious decision to become a powerhouse for neighboring countries. As long as it's reducing CO2 emissions, should we care where the electricity is coming from?
Here's the sentence I'm confused about: "Only 6 m tons of the total, less than 10 percent, was due to the expansion of renewables." But that's just counting "expansion of renewables" in Germany, there's a 26m ton cut in emissions due to imports of cleaner energy. Is this a distinction it's important to make? It's not a distinction the Earth's climate cares about.
I thought the decline was mainly due to the deep crisis Germany is experiencing today.
"The nuclear exit decision was taken a generation ago and other than political troublemaking, nothing is served by wailing over spilled milk."
What nonsense. By that reasoning, we should not be crying over Global Warming at all, since we made the decision to pursue a carbon economy several generations ago. Just got to live with our stupid decisions forever, apparently. It's the German way.
I saw no mention of the fact that last winter was a 6 sigma warmer than usual season.
That would seem to be a major factor along with the significant de-industrialization.
One missed piece I just HAVE to mention: Emissions of fossil fuels production and transport. Sure: the emissions share of natural gas dropped slightly. But be switching from pipeline gas to LNG (partly from fracking) a multiple of former emissions was emitted in production and transport. And this part is completely hidden in the national balance of CO2-equivalent emissions.
Is this really significant? Well, yes, newer studies even point out, that using natural gas could get as worse as using coal if global emissions caused by this energy source are taken into account.
Looks almost like another step to "exporting" CO2-usage ... or at least more obfuscation is created by switching to LNG, which should be taken into account.
I think I understand the powerful impulse of businesses to seek resources and markets, and the prevailing religious orthodoxy (“go ye forth and multiply”), but I’m still kinda amazed that population control isn’t part of our resource-management toolkit.
While we struggle to move to non-toxic, non-catastrophic renewable energy, we tend to focus on SUPPLY. We could address DEMAND for energy by paying a stipend to women for each year that they defer having their first child.
There’s a 1999 Cornell University study that says: “Democratically determined population-control practices and sound resource-management policies could have the planet's 2 billion people thriving in harmony with the environment. Lacking these approaches … 12 billon miserable humans will suffer a difficult life on Earth by the year 2100.” http://news.cornell.edu/stories/1999/09/miserable-life-overcrowded-earth-2100
What happened to the comments here Adam? Time to get out of Substack, its becoming a hotbed of Fascists just like all the other US social networks. Go it alone like Molly White. You're good enough and popular enough to survive without Substack.
Don't think it's substack's fault, I would guess that the fanbase of Adam's books is probably pretty right wing/centrist, by your definition. Bookish people interested in WWII and data-based economic analysis tend not to be activist types.
Adam sometimes reaches leftish conclusions, but it's not the meat of his analysis. He presents facts that could be taken either way, based on your particular values; i.e. he is a good historian.
Oh dear, solar requires REE, and every ton of REE generates 2000 tons of toxins, including a ton of radioactive toxic thorium or uranium. So far that’s a Chinese problem, soon to be an African problem. Too many Africans anyway...
https://hir.harvard.edu/not-so-green-technology-the-complicated-legacy-of-rare-earth-mining/
“It’s Complicated”
I noticed earlier post Eritrea 🇪🇷 needs some democracy... yes... don’t we all...
This carbon hatred is part of the religion of self loathing, and loathing of the flesh- we are carbon.
Gnostics win for now... our very bodies- and plant food (CO2) are an evil poison that must be purged.
I wonder if the actual polluters of real toxins and heavy metals and such intended this to go so far?
They of course paid for all this, not a pfennig of grant money to any is paid for any research unless it mentions Global Warming... and the ever greedy politicians and universities will say anything for money.
Especially Economists.
There will be a terrible reckoning for the Gnostics over this...
... but today their fortunes are high, and the unruly commoners crushed.
Whats happened to electricity prices in Germany?
Electricity becomes a little bit cheaper, but it's still dramatically expensive (at least, for households).