China is the worldʼs largest greenhouse gas emitter, and the second-largest historical emitter, after the United States. In 2021, it produced 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with around 18% of the worldʼs population and GDP. Chinaʼs share of global emissions rose to this level from less than 10% in 1990. China was responsible for 73% of the increase in global CO 2 emissions from 2010 to 2022
Shame on the West for taking so long to act on climate change and even now, having per capita emissions that far exceed those in China and the global south. Shame on the West for even now obstructing China’s efforts by engaging in trade wars. Shame on the West for not providing financial grants to help China and the Global South transform their economies. You are like the rich man, with Lazarus at your gate. Not lifting a finger to help, only ready to point an accusing finger at the poor.
My view is this is way too pessimistic about China’s emissions trajectory. One, the massive infrastructure build is over, particularly residential construction. Two, you have a rapidly aging and declining population, (old people don’t consume as much, particularly new housing), three you have far and away the world’s largest renewable energy buildout—driven by strategic concerns about dependence on oil and gas needing to transit the South China Sea, and fourth, the reservoirs are refilling and a lot of coal plant buildout was to make up for lack of hydro during the past couple bad years. Right now massive buildout of facilities for producing plants for renewable linked production, and the energy intensive production of these batteries and solar panels is driving the coal emissions. The rapid buildout of nuclear should take over this base load. Finally steel has been a huge contributor, but with many projects moving from construction to tear down there should be a lot of scrap steel for electric arc furnace steel production which is much less emitting. I’m an optimist that expects a dramatic decline curve much sooner than expected driven by the demographic chance and the economic growth decline—and the renewable and nuclear buildup.
We passed average 1.5 this year. We don’t fully appreciate the impact that increasingly violent climate events will have on any of the policy frameworks, commitments, action plans before us. We will be in full ER mode in the next ten years…maybe then we will have a chance of saving this planet for human habitation.
In the meantime we need to elect the politicians, invest capital, build the decarbonized infrastructure that will make the next period less tumultuous
Good to open this discussion but let us be clear, this is a planetary problem, so pointing a finger anywhere doesn't provide actionable solutions. One of the key takeaways here is that in low-GDP countries, as GDP per capita increases -> so do per capita GHG emissions. That is a fact. 50% of the planet's population has a GDP/capita of 5k or less. That same category of countries saw emissions grow 27% from 2013 to 2022. In 2022 their GHG emissions per capita were still less than 3 MT per capita (on average). ie far below the West. In conclusion, stop worrying about China, China is being proactive in reducing its emissions, let us focus on the likes of Bangladesh and Ethiopia because they are the real challenge and need our help, input, and investment.
Shame on the West for taking so long to act on climate change and even now, having per capita emissions that far exceed those in China and the global south. Shame on the West for even now obstructing China’s efforts by engaging in trade wars. Shame on the West for not providing financial grants to help China and the Global South transform their economies. You are like the rich man, with Lazarus at your gate. Not lifting a finger to help, only ready to point an accusing finger at the poor.
My view is this is way too pessimistic about China’s emissions trajectory. One, the massive infrastructure build is over, particularly residential construction. Two, you have a rapidly aging and declining population, (old people don’t consume as much, particularly new housing), three you have far and away the world’s largest renewable energy buildout—driven by strategic concerns about dependence on oil and gas needing to transit the South China Sea, and fourth, the reservoirs are refilling and a lot of coal plant buildout was to make up for lack of hydro during the past couple bad years. Right now massive buildout of facilities for producing plants for renewable linked production, and the energy intensive production of these batteries and solar panels is driving the coal emissions. The rapid buildout of nuclear should take over this base load. Finally steel has been a huge contributor, but with many projects moving from construction to tear down there should be a lot of scrap steel for electric arc furnace steel production which is much less emitting. I’m an optimist that expects a dramatic decline curve much sooner than expected driven by the demographic chance and the economic growth decline—and the renewable and nuclear buildup.
We passed average 1.5 this year. We don’t fully appreciate the impact that increasingly violent climate events will have on any of the policy frameworks, commitments, action plans before us. We will be in full ER mode in the next ten years…maybe then we will have a chance of saving this planet for human habitation.
In the meantime we need to elect the politicians, invest capital, build the decarbonized infrastructure that will make the next period less tumultuous
Good to open this discussion but let us be clear, this is a planetary problem, so pointing a finger anywhere doesn't provide actionable solutions. One of the key takeaways here is that in low-GDP countries, as GDP per capita increases -> so do per capita GHG emissions. That is a fact. 50% of the planet's population has a GDP/capita of 5k or less. That same category of countries saw emissions grow 27% from 2013 to 2022. In 2022 their GHG emissions per capita were still less than 3 MT per capita (on average). ie far below the West. In conclusion, stop worrying about China, China is being proactive in reducing its emissions, let us focus on the likes of Bangladesh and Ethiopia because they are the real challenge and need our help, input, and investment.