Like most folks I’ve been staggered by how rapidly the West has escalated the economic war against Putin’s regime. But, we must remind ourselves that energy remains the giant exception. In the oil market, there are reports of “self-sanctioning” by Western firms, which is making it harder for Russia to sell its oil. I have not yet seen any overall estimate of the effect in reducing oil revenue flow. Is there one out there?
Another benefit to Russia, in addition to the daily $750m, is the no-think zone Putin has imposed on most Western leaders. With the notable exception of Bennett, they have been triggered into a hypersanctioning delirium.
If Iran adjusted to sanctions by selling its oil to other players, what is the demand for oil from players willing to work with sanctioned regimes like Russia and Iran. Would Russia's entry into the sanctioned market crowd out Iran. If it does what is the effect.
Where does Russian oil go if the West really stopped buying it. There is increasing political pressure for that measure.
I also looked at the entire Kamil Galeev thread put up above. There was a dive into Russian energy production and the specifics of trade with China, but there was NO discussion whatsoever concerning the "technological import" assertion in the Tweet heading.
Not particularly credibility enhancing.
What technology is Russia exporting, that sanctions will reduce or block?
How will this technology import interference hurt the Russian economy?
Why was no commentary on the impacts of sanctions on the US and EU included?
This isn't Iran where their economy is so small, and the impact of Iranian sanctions on the West also small, that its effect on the West is irrelevant.
How are the "self sanctioning" impacts of ridiculous record highs in oil, natural gas, coal, wheat, fertilizer, metals and gasoline (among others) affecting the economies and the politics in the West?
If sanctions on Russia have a significant impact on the West - then the sanctions regime is an endurance contest and not a one-sided punishment.
What's missing in the comparison is how isolated Iran has been for over 40 years. If the departure of Visa and Mastercard hurts Russia a tiny bit, remember that Iran never had either and has had to build a full electronic + financial network from scratch. The delta in what Iran was getting from the day before to after any given sanction never came close to Russia's, and if they needed to use intermediaries to smuggle in weapons or airplane technology they needed, the scale was not quite the same as it would be for Russia.
Great analysis; but aren't we discounting too much the people factor here? As repressive Russia has been and is, majority of Russian people per my experience they try to become more European integrated too and now they see their lives dramatically changing. Putin vision of himself as a renewed Peter the Great. But Ukraine and particularly Odessa is dangerous place to czars. Are we going to witness a Potemkin moment? Protests will grow bigger and bigger in the next 2 weeks see here: https://twitter.com/EvaHartog/status/1500451142228185089?s=20&t=QvIGiTfwarblOrNE-_gVuw
The increase from $200 to $720 million in daily revenue is certainly favorable to the seller but is that solely attributable to the market impact of US sponsored sanctions? Hasn’t Western Europe also stepped up its volume of purchases in an effort to build stockpiles in case additional sanctions (or Russian counter sanctions) should result in a total cut off of supply?
One note on oil. While Brent is up over $115, Russian oil is not clearing at that price. Shell purchased Urals crude at a $28.5 discount on Friday, and it is likely that a lot of oil purchases will be done under the table (no reported pricing).
Even at a discount, that still means a lot of revenue for Russia. I'd note a $28.5 discount pretty much corresponds to the ruble devaluation - so does this mean the petrodollar standard is dying?
North Korea has China as suitor, Russia has China as possible suitor.....a China - Russia - N. Korea - Iran alliance is not one to be considered "out in the cold". That would be a thriving alliance...
Another benefit to Russia, in addition to the daily $750m, is the no-think zone Putin has imposed on most Western leaders. With the notable exception of Bennett, they have been triggered into a hypersanctioning delirium.
If Iran adjusted to sanctions by selling its oil to other players, what is the demand for oil from players willing to work with sanctioned regimes like Russia and Iran. Would Russia's entry into the sanctioned market crowd out Iran. If it does what is the effect.
Where does Russian oil go if the West really stopped buying it. There is increasing political pressure for that measure.
I'm not an expert on the oi black market but I think it's Turkey, China, Pakistan, and N Korea
I also looked at the entire Kamil Galeev thread put up above. There was a dive into Russian energy production and the specifics of trade with China, but there was NO discussion whatsoever concerning the "technological import" assertion in the Tweet heading.
Not particularly credibility enhancing.
What technology is Russia exporting, that sanctions will reduce or block?
How will this technology import interference hurt the Russian economy?
Mr. Tooze,
Why was no commentary on the impacts of sanctions on the US and EU included?
This isn't Iran where their economy is so small, and the impact of Iranian sanctions on the West also small, that its effect on the West is irrelevant.
How are the "self sanctioning" impacts of ridiculous record highs in oil, natural gas, coal, wheat, fertilizer, metals and gasoline (among others) affecting the economies and the politics in the West?
If sanctions on Russia have a significant impact on the West - then the sanctions regime is an endurance contest and not a one-sided punishment.
What's missing in the comparison is how isolated Iran has been for over 40 years. If the departure of Visa and Mastercard hurts Russia a tiny bit, remember that Iran never had either and has had to build a full electronic + financial network from scratch. The delta in what Iran was getting from the day before to after any given sanction never came close to Russia's, and if they needed to use intermediaries to smuggle in weapons or airplane technology they needed, the scale was not quite the same as it would be for Russia.
Great analysis; but aren't we discounting too much the people factor here? As repressive Russia has been and is, majority of Russian people per my experience they try to become more European integrated too and now they see their lives dramatically changing. Putin vision of himself as a renewed Peter the Great. But Ukraine and particularly Odessa is dangerous place to czars. Are we going to witness a Potemkin moment? Protests will grow bigger and bigger in the next 2 weeks see here: https://twitter.com/EvaHartog/status/1500451142228185089?s=20&t=QvIGiTfwarblOrNE-_gVuw
The increase from $200 to $720 million in daily revenue is certainly favorable to the seller but is that solely attributable to the market impact of US sponsored sanctions? Hasn’t Western Europe also stepped up its volume of purchases in an effort to build stockpiles in case additional sanctions (or Russian counter sanctions) should result in a total cut off of supply?
One note on oil. While Brent is up over $115, Russian oil is not clearing at that price. Shell purchased Urals crude at a $28.5 discount on Friday, and it is likely that a lot of oil purchases will be done under the table (no reported pricing).
Even at a discount, that still means a lot of revenue for Russia. I'd note a $28.5 discount pretty much corresponds to the ruble devaluation - so does this mean the petrodollar standard is dying?
Are you implying the purchase was made in rubles?
I'm wondering at the coincidence of the massive ruble devaluation with the purported price drop. I obviously don't know one way or the other.
Agree. Probably Xi is good a driving a hard bargain. Maybe even Kim have some.
Xi might need to write his own "Art of the Deal" after swindling Trump and Putin. Feels like Russia is becoming North Korea, just 10x
North Korea has China as suitor, Russia has China as possible suitor.....a China - Russia - N. Korea - Iran alliance is not one to be considered "out in the cold". That would be a thriving alliance...
No wonder Japan's former PM thinks they should be open to hosting nukes. Can't imagine India would be too excited either
Well observed. The North Korean dog has not barked yet.