Gustave Doré L’Énigme, 1871 As Russian forces begin to resort to heavy artillery “fires” in their assault on Kharkiv, the character of the war in Ukraine may be about to take a terrible turn. In the days ahead, it is to be feared that the almost carnivalesque sense of the war as a people’s uprising against a clumsy, incompetent and oppressive enemy, will give way to something much grimmer. And that begs the question, how are we to locate this conflict in recent military history?
Adam, Thanks for your work here. There is a situation in the Ukraine that hasn't gotten much coverage. In about four weeks, the rains will start. Russian & Ukrainian mud has it's own WIKI page. It's called the Rasputitsa, look it up. Sometimes in '41 & '42, the mud was the only thing that stopped the Wehrmacht. Stopped Napoleon too. When there's mud, off road traffic stops for all intents & purposes. It lasts 4-6 weeks. The fact that they started an invasion before it starts shows the poor strategic preparation of this offensive. It would have made more sense to wait until June when good weather for a campaign occurs.
They must have thought that the Ukrainians wouldn't fight. In 1941, it took the Germans 800,000 men and six months to conquer the Ukraine. And that was against the Red Army that fell apart most of the time. The Ukrainians are Not falling apart. They are heavily armed and are fighting back. It looks to me like the Russians are about 625,000 men short of what they need to have a chance of success. Finally, the Russian Army is a joke compared to the Wehrmacht of 1941. That was one of the greatest armies in history.
Another thing that's struck me is: THEY STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH VEHICLES FOR EVERYONE TO RIDE INSIDE!?! They have to ride on top of armored vehicles just like the Soviet propaganda photos of 1944. Like, most armies ride INSIDE armored vehicles. Seventy five years after WW2, they still don't have enough trucks!?! Much less the AFVs our troops ride in. Men on vehicles get knocked off pretty easy. This is not a modern army. It is a charade of an army, always has been. The Russians have historically lost battles at the beginning of wars. Like for 300 years. I can't see how this ends well for them.
Now, they say the Russians will resort to mass bombing & shelling. Since Japanese terror bombing of China in the '30s, it's been found that this Stiffens the resolve of those attacked, not degrade it. The Ukrainians seem to have high morale now, wait until the terror bombing starts. They'll end up invading Russia.
I've been trying to imagine the force structure required to conquer a country of 40 million people. We had 600,000 men plus 1,000,000 ARVN in Viet Nam and didn't prevail against a similar size country. Remember Ukrainian guerrillas fought the Russians for six Years after WW2! These are not a people that will be conquered easily. It seems to me that an army of a million plus would be needed. The most men the Russians put into Afghanistan was 325,000. It's unclear if the Russians have enough modern equipment & men for a larger sized force. They will need one to subdue the Ukraine.
I'm no expert on these affairs, I just read history. Maybe Putin should have too.
Your listing of the horrors of wars that, as in Africa, count the casualties in the millions yet fly well below our media and NGOs radar, highlights the malevolent effects of the obsessive focus on Israel. The victims of real aggression are ignored and important concepts (such as apartheid, genocide and ethnic cleansing) are redefined so as to become so broad as to become meaningless in an attempt to discredit Israel. In so doing, the hard won principles of human rights, born in the West, are hollowed out - just as Daniel Patrick Moynihan, acting as US Ambassador to the UN, warned they would in his 1975 speech to the General Assembly denouncing the Soviet inspired “Zionism is racism” resolution.
As you demonstrate albeit implicitly, the Arab nations (and their subsidiary terror arms) that still array themselves against Israel have the good fortune of being opposed by the professional, rules-bound and sophisticated IDF and not, say, Russia or Iran. There is a good reason Gaza looks nothing like Grozny and never will. Then again, like Ukraine, Israel fights in defense of its homeland and its people.
Interesting reading. I am not a soldier, I don't live in Ukraine, I live in Slovakia. We are neighbours of Ukraine. I can't see how this could turn out well for Putin and Russia. With the help of the West, Ukraine is capable of fighting for months, maybe even years. The West should support the opening of several fronts: the coup in Belarus, support separatist tendencies in the Russian republics beyond the Urals. Caucasus. Russia needs to be weakened and divided as much as possible.
"Are the Russians really as incompetent and unmotivated as our admittedly one-sided media feeds makes it seem?"
Very macabre thinking: Assuming they are not as incompetent....are the russians deliberately sacrificing their lower trained lesser experienced troops for some future gain/escalation motive?
The Iraq-Iran war 1980-1887 involved millions of soldiers with 300,000-1,100,000 deaths on their border with little civilian deaths and even less publicity. Why are the huge Russian convoys not bombed or mined Can Ukraine sabotage the Russians indefinitely? Everyone is a loser.
Adam, Thanks for your work here. There is a situation in the Ukraine that hasn't gotten much coverage. In about four weeks, the rains will start. Russian & Ukrainian mud has it's own WIKI page. It's called the Rasputitsa, look it up. Sometimes in '41 & '42, the mud was the only thing that stopped the Wehrmacht. Stopped Napoleon too. When there's mud, off road traffic stops for all intents & purposes. It lasts 4-6 weeks. The fact that they started an invasion before it starts shows the poor strategic preparation of this offensive. It would have made more sense to wait until June when good weather for a campaign occurs.
They must have thought that the Ukrainians wouldn't fight. In 1941, it took the Germans 800,000 men and six months to conquer the Ukraine. And that was against the Red Army that fell apart most of the time. The Ukrainians are Not falling apart. They are heavily armed and are fighting back. It looks to me like the Russians are about 625,000 men short of what they need to have a chance of success. Finally, the Russian Army is a joke compared to the Wehrmacht of 1941. That was one of the greatest armies in history.
Another thing that's struck me is: THEY STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH VEHICLES FOR EVERYONE TO RIDE INSIDE!?! They have to ride on top of armored vehicles just like the Soviet propaganda photos of 1944. Like, most armies ride INSIDE armored vehicles. Seventy five years after WW2, they still don't have enough trucks!?! Much less the AFVs our troops ride in. Men on vehicles get knocked off pretty easy. This is not a modern army. It is a charade of an army, always has been. The Russians have historically lost battles at the beginning of wars. Like for 300 years. I can't see how this ends well for them.
Now, they say the Russians will resort to mass bombing & shelling. Since Japanese terror bombing of China in the '30s, it's been found that this Stiffens the resolve of those attacked, not degrade it. The Ukrainians seem to have high morale now, wait until the terror bombing starts. They'll end up invading Russia.
I've been trying to imagine the force structure required to conquer a country of 40 million people. We had 600,000 men plus 1,000,000 ARVN in Viet Nam and didn't prevail against a similar size country. Remember Ukrainian guerrillas fought the Russians for six Years after WW2! These are not a people that will be conquered easily. It seems to me that an army of a million plus would be needed. The most men the Russians put into Afghanistan was 325,000. It's unclear if the Russians have enough modern equipment & men for a larger sized force. They will need one to subdue the Ukraine.
I'm no expert on these affairs, I just read history. Maybe Putin should have too.
Your listing of the horrors of wars that, as in Africa, count the casualties in the millions yet fly well below our media and NGOs radar, highlights the malevolent effects of the obsessive focus on Israel. The victims of real aggression are ignored and important concepts (such as apartheid, genocide and ethnic cleansing) are redefined so as to become so broad as to become meaningless in an attempt to discredit Israel. In so doing, the hard won principles of human rights, born in the West, are hollowed out - just as Daniel Patrick Moynihan, acting as US Ambassador to the UN, warned they would in his 1975 speech to the General Assembly denouncing the Soviet inspired “Zionism is racism” resolution.
As you demonstrate albeit implicitly, the Arab nations (and their subsidiary terror arms) that still array themselves against Israel have the good fortune of being opposed by the professional, rules-bound and sophisticated IDF and not, say, Russia or Iran. There is a good reason Gaza looks nothing like Grozny and never will. Then again, like Ukraine, Israel fights in defense of its homeland and its people.
Interesting reading. I am not a soldier, I don't live in Ukraine, I live in Slovakia. We are neighbours of Ukraine. I can't see how this could turn out well for Putin and Russia. With the help of the West, Ukraine is capable of fighting for months, maybe even years. The West should support the opening of several fronts: the coup in Belarus, support separatist tendencies in the Russian republics beyond the Urals. Caucasus. Russia needs to be weakened and divided as much as possible.
Very interesting read, appreciate the write-up.
"Are the Russians really as incompetent and unmotivated as our admittedly one-sided media feeds makes it seem?"
Very macabre thinking: Assuming they are not as incompetent....are the russians deliberately sacrificing their lower trained lesser experienced troops for some future gain/escalation motive?
Couple of errors: The first Bazaar of War tweet mentions Poland, and you say "Russia, on the other hand, invested at least $39 in Ukraine until 2014".
The Iraq-Iran war 1980-1887 involved millions of soldiers with 300,000-1,100,000 deaths on their border with little civilian deaths and even less publicity. Why are the huge Russian convoys not bombed or mined Can Ukraine sabotage the Russians indefinitely? Everyone is a loser.