On the afternoon of February 24 2022 East Coast time, the day Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, after a morning of consultation with the G7 governments, President Biden strode to the White House rostrum to announce America’s reaction.
I think wrapped by technicalities these sanctions actually hurt, a lot. And yes, SWIFT requires all members to agree, and some Europeans did not want to. As well there is a need not to fully cripple some European countries need for gas and oil as well as to close ledgers without hurting international financial system. Having said that though the actions are harsh and will stay in place. Frances Coppola explained well what just has been initiated here https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1496939859092684803?s=20&t=IX9XwaCXvInsPnEjsk7OMA
This is a siege on the besieger. And it will hurt the intended target, which is not Putin per se, unreachable really, but the oligarchs. The transactional relation between oligarchs and Putin was great before 2014; after that, the relationship was tolerable but still working well enough for both sides; but Ukraine can be THE issue. Yes, oligarchs want to save money; but they must get richer and be free to be and go and do everywhere, so not at any price. Putin instead wants legacy and revenge of the URSS humiliation; he seems more and more in his own world. Already today 2 24 meeting was quite more nervous and inquisitive toward Putin in an unheard way. Oligarchs do not care who is in charge and how as long as it benefits them. Years ago, one of them said that when things change in Russia, they change the jacket but the wallet stays in the pants. When you hurt their wallet, they think what’s next and they can pressure the circle around Putin, the siloviki.
Back to Ukraine. Putin and the Russian army are on a clock. They do not have unlimited resources, despite Russian bank reserves; they need parts, they need food. 200,000 soldiers as impressive as it might seem they cannot keep control of Ukraine and Ukraine is not Belarus or Kazakhstan or Georgia. They do have a (massive) weapon advantage, which makes US and NATO weary to engage. The hypersonic missiles are impossible to stop or to be spotted by radars before is too late and they have a lot of those. So, putting a carrier nearby is not a helpful deterrent, just a target that can be taken care by a single Zircon from a frigate. Any fixed strategic land post can be wiped out by Iskanders. Hard to accept but at today Russian army has some more advanced weapons for which nor US nor NATO have an answer. Putin knows that. But his army cannot control a vast country like Ukraine with armed rebels moving targets. So, a month from now music will be different. Best tactic for Biden is to make life harder for oligarchs, which means also harsher for Russian people. Expect more and more manifestations riots in Russia Belarus Georgia. First police will take care of those until they cannot. Then siloviki will take care of a business long due. They always did.
Yawn. If you think "play all our cards at once so you're left sitting there with no cards left to play" is great strategy, then I want to play poker with you right now. And if you're going to dishonestly ignore that it is Germany, Italy, Hungary (Exalted Cyclops Carlson's new favorite country second to Russia) and Cyprus that are blocking SWIFT sanctions, then you can GFY. The sanctions are not solely Biden's to decide. Anyone pretending as such is a disinformant and might as well be taking rubles on the side.
If Russia is allowed to export gas but not allowed to import goods in exchange or use the proceeds to purchase goods, does that mean they're giving it away for free? I don't understand the implications of allowing as to go in one direction, if the nothing can go in return.
Hmmm.... I believe one fails to mention how much dependent these states are on Russia for their energy. That this is a problem... sure. But I wonder if the US was completely dependent on Russian gas if they would do this as well.
The problem in this is: where else to get your gas from.
Energy companies need to still work... and they are gas turbines. Slochteren in the Netherlands has greatly reduced it's outpour due to the problems it causes in being able to live in the North of the Netherlands where houses now getting into problems as the ground is clunking in as there is less gas to hold it all up.
So - where to get this energy from then?
Pray do tell....
This is one of the reasons why Germany is far ahead of the pack on Green energy: they have to.
But still with that - they are still heavily dependent on this rogue state.
This is also why Nord Stream 2 was going to be built.. Especially Germany needs it because its industry is still exanding.
spare a thought for WHERE this is heading. Yeah, real easy to beat the sanctions drum etc. The Russian continent is NOT going anywhere. So till (IF) the Russians overthrow Putin, or the Russian Armed Forces do a coup or such......we're even more precarious now than before. Ukraine is now a battlefield. Even if enough arms are shuffled to Ukraine to repel Russia, the devastation will be there. Erik Prince wanted Ukraine as an HQ for a mercenary base there valued at $10bn. Biden is neck deep in first hand experience in the buildup to this war, as is the DNC since the days of Viktor Pinchuk funneling campaign contributions. This war was a long time coming. Manafort included. Right to the top. Not a sudden development. Couldn't an entente have been reached? Some earnest listening?
Germany during the cold war wanted a healthy relationship with the ussr in case of potential unification with east germany. When the ussr collapsed and the unification was peaceful, many german politicians felt a sense of gratitude for not causing the end of the world and allowing the union dissolve peacefully ish
And our beloved-by-Harvard-types Germany was spouting hot air? "Leyen also noted that Merkel has been at the forefront of diplomatic efforts to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine."
I still don't understand Germany's decision to become completely energy dependent on Russia. Why on earth would they believe this was a tenable situation, even without a war on their doorstep?
It looks like Russia will lose the Champions League (soccer) final that is scheduled to be played in St. Petersburg. Their national soccer team is in the qualifiers for one of the remaining European spots in next winter's World Cup and possible opponents have already requested that Russia not be permitted to host any matches in the country.
I think wrapped by technicalities these sanctions actually hurt, a lot. And yes, SWIFT requires all members to agree, and some Europeans did not want to. As well there is a need not to fully cripple some European countries need for gas and oil as well as to close ledgers without hurting international financial system. Having said that though the actions are harsh and will stay in place. Frances Coppola explained well what just has been initiated here https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1496939859092684803?s=20&t=IX9XwaCXvInsPnEjsk7OMA
This is a siege on the besieger. And it will hurt the intended target, which is not Putin per se, unreachable really, but the oligarchs. The transactional relation between oligarchs and Putin was great before 2014; after that, the relationship was tolerable but still working well enough for both sides; but Ukraine can be THE issue. Yes, oligarchs want to save money; but they must get richer and be free to be and go and do everywhere, so not at any price. Putin instead wants legacy and revenge of the URSS humiliation; he seems more and more in his own world. Already today 2 24 meeting was quite more nervous and inquisitive toward Putin in an unheard way. Oligarchs do not care who is in charge and how as long as it benefits them. Years ago, one of them said that when things change in Russia, they change the jacket but the wallet stays in the pants. When you hurt their wallet, they think what’s next and they can pressure the circle around Putin, the siloviki.
Back to Ukraine. Putin and the Russian army are on a clock. They do not have unlimited resources, despite Russian bank reserves; they need parts, they need food. 200,000 soldiers as impressive as it might seem they cannot keep control of Ukraine and Ukraine is not Belarus or Kazakhstan or Georgia. They do have a (massive) weapon advantage, which makes US and NATO weary to engage. The hypersonic missiles are impossible to stop or to be spotted by radars before is too late and they have a lot of those. So, putting a carrier nearby is not a helpful deterrent, just a target that can be taken care by a single Zircon from a frigate. Any fixed strategic land post can be wiped out by Iskanders. Hard to accept but at today Russian army has some more advanced weapons for which nor US nor NATO have an answer. Putin knows that. But his army cannot control a vast country like Ukraine with armed rebels moving targets. So, a month from now music will be different. Best tactic for Biden is to make life harder for oligarchs, which means also harsher for Russian people. Expect more and more manifestations riots in Russia Belarus Georgia. First police will take care of those until they cannot. Then siloviki will take care of a business long due. They always did.
Yawn. If you think "play all our cards at once so you're left sitting there with no cards left to play" is great strategy, then I want to play poker with you right now. And if you're going to dishonestly ignore that it is Germany, Italy, Hungary (Exalted Cyclops Carlson's new favorite country second to Russia) and Cyprus that are blocking SWIFT sanctions, then you can GFY. The sanctions are not solely Biden's to decide. Anyone pretending as such is a disinformant and might as well be taking rubles on the side.
If Russia is allowed to export gas but not allowed to import goods in exchange or use the proceeds to purchase goods, does that mean they're giving it away for free? I don't understand the implications of allowing as to go in one direction, if the nothing can go in return.
I wonder if the Ukrainian army starts sabotaging the pipeline on its land. The consequences can be terrifying for Europe.
Hmmm.... I believe one fails to mention how much dependent these states are on Russia for their energy. That this is a problem... sure. But I wonder if the US was completely dependent on Russian gas if they would do this as well.
The problem in this is: where else to get your gas from.
Energy companies need to still work... and they are gas turbines. Slochteren in the Netherlands has greatly reduced it's outpour due to the problems it causes in being able to live in the North of the Netherlands where houses now getting into problems as the ground is clunking in as there is less gas to hold it all up.
So - where to get this energy from then?
Pray do tell....
This is one of the reasons why Germany is far ahead of the pack on Green energy: they have to.
But still with that - they are still heavily dependent on this rogue state.
This is also why Nord Stream 2 was going to be built.. Especially Germany needs it because its industry is still exanding.
spare a thought for WHERE this is heading. Yeah, real easy to beat the sanctions drum etc. The Russian continent is NOT going anywhere. So till (IF) the Russians overthrow Putin, or the Russian Armed Forces do a coup or such......we're even more precarious now than before. Ukraine is now a battlefield. Even if enough arms are shuffled to Ukraine to repel Russia, the devastation will be there. Erik Prince wanted Ukraine as an HQ for a mercenary base there valued at $10bn. Biden is neck deep in first hand experience in the buildup to this war, as is the DNC since the days of Viktor Pinchuk funneling campaign contributions. This war was a long time coming. Manafort included. Right to the top. Not a sudden development. Couldn't an entente have been reached? Some earnest listening?
The gloved hand regarding oil, the reality of our interdependent economies, may soon be forced.
I don't think this is well known whatsoever. I feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football held by Lucy.
Germany during the cold war wanted a healthy relationship with the ussr in case of potential unification with east germany. When the ussr collapsed and the unification was peaceful, many german politicians felt a sense of gratitude for not causing the end of the world and allowing the union dissolve peacefully ish
So Trump's 2018 scolding of NATO was spot on? https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/donald-trump-nato-summit-2018/index.html
And our beloved-by-Harvard-types Germany was spouting hot air? "Leyen also noted that Merkel has been at the forefront of diplomatic efforts to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine."
I still don't understand Germany's decision to become completely energy dependent on Russia. Why on earth would they believe this was a tenable situation, even without a war on their doorstep?
It looks like Russia will lose the Champions League (soccer) final that is scheduled to be played in St. Petersburg. Their national soccer team is in the qualifiers for one of the remaining European spots in next winter's World Cup and possible opponents have already requested that Russia not be permitted to host any matches in the country.