Chartbook #73: Crisis Pictures (Krisenbilder) - mapping the polycrisis
adamtooze.substack.com
Yes, I know it is relentless. That is also a feature of the polycrisis we are in. It comes from all sides and it just doesn’t stop. How to get a handle on this situation? In German there is a compound noun: Krisenbilder - Crisis Pictures. I am going to draw some Krisenbilder.
I love your articles and how thought provoking they are. I had not realized the inflation pressure issue involved here. To me it seems the Ukraine crisis is the Cuban missile crisis in reverse.
On what war in Ukraine would look like, I strongly recommend this talk by Philip Karber, a DC consultant, about the 2014-15 round. It starts with a short overview of Russian "hybrid warfare" that I didn't find very helpful (virus analogies, etc.), but at the 14:00 mark the talk turns to a truly fascinating discussion about the technical details of the fighting, such as multiple tracking of aircraft and the devastating deployment of on-call MLRS artillery.
War at an operational scale between near-peers in terms of technology is not something we are used to reading about in a Western context, dominated for so long by technical and strategic approaches to various counterinsurgencies, so I think this lecture is useful, if for nothing else, to begin to grasp the sheer complexity and destructiveness of modern "conventional war".
Clicking on link should start the video at the right place,
Nice concise visual summary format! I suppose if we're making a doom diagram, it wouldn't be complete without (US/EU inflation, and energy prices) -> (global inflation and EM economic crisis) -> (pressure on MENA & Turkey) -> (reprise of refugee situation?) . Oh and what about US/Iran?
Mind-maps for polycrises - love it. Sprinkle in rise of autocracies please. Or if that's too fuzzy, just 2022 elections and the 20th party congress in Beijing.
Is it not hubris to expect us to be able to manage these crises? Martin Gurri has a relevant book. The upshot is that governments should reduce their scope of activities, because complex systems are beyond our ability to influence positively.
That was an honest question. I ask because In countries such as Russia and Ukraine (and not only) stock markets are not the usual way that people raise capital or exit an investment. Markets in such countries are relatively illiquid and peripheral to the economy as a whole, and therefore market indices don't necessarily tell us all that much.
On second thought: Russia has relatively little external debt, so maybe a CDS spread on Russian debt also doesn't tell us all that much. Bad cat!
I love your articles and how thought provoking they are. I had not realized the inflation pressure issue involved here. To me it seems the Ukraine crisis is the Cuban missile crisis in reverse.
On what war in Ukraine would look like, I strongly recommend this talk by Philip Karber, a DC consultant, about the 2014-15 round. It starts with a short overview of Russian "hybrid warfare" that I didn't find very helpful (virus analogies, etc.), but at the 14:00 mark the talk turns to a truly fascinating discussion about the technical details of the fighting, such as multiple tracking of aircraft and the devastating deployment of on-call MLRS artillery.
War at an operational scale between near-peers in terms of technology is not something we are used to reading about in a Western context, dominated for so long by technical and strategic approaches to various counterinsurgencies, so I think this lecture is useful, if for nothing else, to begin to grasp the sheer complexity and destructiveness of modern "conventional war".
Clicking on link should start the video at the right place,
https://youtu.be/14LMmBsDw-g?t=838
How does the housing bubble in China and slowing growth there fit in?
Nice concise visual summary format! I suppose if we're making a doom diagram, it wouldn't be complete without (US/EU inflation, and energy prices) -> (global inflation and EM economic crisis) -> (pressure on MENA & Turkey) -> (reprise of refugee situation?) . Oh and what about US/Iran?
Mind-maps for polycrises - love it. Sprinkle in rise of autocracies please. Or if that's too fuzzy, just 2022 elections and the 20th party congress in Beijing.
Is it not hubris to expect us to be able to manage these crises? Martin Gurri has a relevant book. The upshot is that governments should reduce their scope of activities, because complex systems are beyond our ability to influence positively.
Kvestion: what are CDS spreads on Russian debt?
That was an honest question. I ask because In countries such as Russia and Ukraine (and not only) stock markets are not the usual way that people raise capital or exit an investment. Markets in such countries are relatively illiquid and peripheral to the economy as a whole, and therefore market indices don't necessarily tell us all that much.
On second thought: Russia has relatively little external debt, so maybe a CDS spread on Russian debt also doesn't tell us all that much. Bad cat!