It seems that history was burying the climate revolution in fiscal policy just as I was diagnosing it. Literally as I was doing the final edits on Chartbook #61 this morning, Joe Manchin was on Fox TV, announcing that he would not vote for the Build Back Bill.
From the viewpoint of many of us in the Midwest, totally not surprising and I think overkill to say that this is the end of the world as we know it. Manchin already voted for more than $5T in new spending in the last ten months. A lot of disconnect between what some perceive as governmental overreach in DC and underperformance locally, where crime is out of control in many high-tax cites--I live in Chicago. Climate change is really all about energy, and based upon corporate and investor sustainability goals, clean tech innovations will continue with or without the government. Long term, demographics rules all and fewer people and slower growth in coming decades will make our current levels of debt unsustainable. There is no acceptable level of inflation that can make that problem go away. And now a new round of Covid could mean fiscal support will be needed to help those affected. So not a disaster, but perhaps a time to reassess priorities and realistically survey what the American people want-and can afford.
This was always the endgame. Anyone who could not see this coming has been ignoring months of clear evidence.
Part of the plan was always to drag the "negotiations" out as long ago to expose the fact that top-level Democrats were always willing to sell out the promises they made to voters. Part of the plan was to get Biden, Schumer and the rest of the Dem establishment to focus all their energy on destroying the possibility that Dems that cared about the infrastructure bill (and voting rights, the climate, etc) could mount any countervailing pressure on belalf of those things. Part of the plan was to make sure that the establishment Dems never pointed out the massive corporate funding behind Manchin and Sinema's gamesmanship and the MSM narratives about "centrism" and that legislation that clearly had majority popular support "went too far:
Biden chose to prioritize infrastructure over voting rights, now neither will pass. So the chance to save both US democracy and stave off the worst excesses of global warming are well and truly doomed. Manchin was running out the clock...people wanted to believe otherwise, but it was always clear that this was the plan. Ironically, now that Manchin has destroyed his own party, he'll find donor dollars drying up. His only value to the energy companies and corporate oligarchs was watering down Democratic legislation. Once the GOP regains the House and Senate, they won't need Manchin.
The Dems barely won the legislative race in 2020 and their majorities are clearly doomed in 2022. A 1 Trillion infrastructure bill was itself an impressive achievement, under the circumstances. I'm kind of shocked that Mr. Tooze was shocked by this development.
Another thought: I recall that one of Manchin's many concerns about BBB was that he considered it inflationary and was concerned that it added to the national debt - both arguments largely countered by economists. But how is this proposed spending any more inflationary/debt-increasing than the nearly $1 trillion annual budget for 'national security'? Does 'national security' spending have some magical power that makes it immune from these effects? And what's the use of 'national security' if our nation's people no longer has ready access to clean water, affordable food, and a livable climate - all of which will be scarce goods if our planet continues to deteriorate?
Granted, I understand that the BBB also targets spending to 'consumer' goods and services, which may impact inflation more than NS spending. Also, I get the Niskanen Center's point about cost disease socialism, which, yes, will likely increase the price of the goods/services that the government subsidizes. But isn't the intentional 'inflation' built by law into our defense contracting system also economically destructive?
Anyway, my point is this: Why can't we have rational government policy? So much magical thinking, so much ideological 'reasoning' - to the extent that thinking and reasoning are even things of which our 'leaders' are even capable. I'm just sick of the whole lot - throw ALL the bums out!
Ole King Coal strikes a possibly mortal blow to the earth. Hope he's happy in his role as The Grinch Who Stole Christmas from his children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren. But WTF, if they secure their $$$ through multiple generations, maybe they can all book passage on a spaceship to the as-yet-undiscovered Earth II. Sick.
From the viewpoint of many of us in the Midwest, totally not surprising and I think overkill to say that this is the end of the world as we know it. Manchin already voted for more than $5T in new spending in the last ten months. A lot of disconnect between what some perceive as governmental overreach in DC and underperformance locally, where crime is out of control in many high-tax cites--I live in Chicago. Climate change is really all about energy, and based upon corporate and investor sustainability goals, clean tech innovations will continue with or without the government. Long term, demographics rules all and fewer people and slower growth in coming decades will make our current levels of debt unsustainable. There is no acceptable level of inflation that can make that problem go away. And now a new round of Covid could mean fiscal support will be needed to help those affected. So not a disaster, but perhaps a time to reassess priorities and realistically survey what the American people want-and can afford.
The longer we do nothing the longer I keep thinking about your piece on Andreas Malm...
This was always the endgame. Anyone who could not see this coming has been ignoring months of clear evidence.
Part of the plan was always to drag the "negotiations" out as long ago to expose the fact that top-level Democrats were always willing to sell out the promises they made to voters. Part of the plan was to get Biden, Schumer and the rest of the Dem establishment to focus all their energy on destroying the possibility that Dems that cared about the infrastructure bill (and voting rights, the climate, etc) could mount any countervailing pressure on belalf of those things. Part of the plan was to make sure that the establishment Dems never pointed out the massive corporate funding behind Manchin and Sinema's gamesmanship and the MSM narratives about "centrism" and that legislation that clearly had majority popular support "went too far:
Biden chose to prioritize infrastructure over voting rights, now neither will pass. So the chance to save both US democracy and stave off the worst excesses of global warming are well and truly doomed. Manchin was running out the clock...people wanted to believe otherwise, but it was always clear that this was the plan. Ironically, now that Manchin has destroyed his own party, he'll find donor dollars drying up. His only value to the energy companies and corporate oligarchs was watering down Democratic legislation. Once the GOP regains the House and Senate, they won't need Manchin.
The Dems barely won the legislative race in 2020 and their majorities are clearly doomed in 2022. A 1 Trillion infrastructure bill was itself an impressive achievement, under the circumstances. I'm kind of shocked that Mr. Tooze was shocked by this development.
Biden now has more reason to fit his permanently "contrite" demeanor.
Another thought: I recall that one of Manchin's many concerns about BBB was that he considered it inflationary and was concerned that it added to the national debt - both arguments largely countered by economists. But how is this proposed spending any more inflationary/debt-increasing than the nearly $1 trillion annual budget for 'national security'? Does 'national security' spending have some magical power that makes it immune from these effects? And what's the use of 'national security' if our nation's people no longer has ready access to clean water, affordable food, and a livable climate - all of which will be scarce goods if our planet continues to deteriorate?
Granted, I understand that the BBB also targets spending to 'consumer' goods and services, which may impact inflation more than NS spending. Also, I get the Niskanen Center's point about cost disease socialism, which, yes, will likely increase the price of the goods/services that the government subsidizes. But isn't the intentional 'inflation' built by law into our defense contracting system also economically destructive?
Anyway, my point is this: Why can't we have rational government policy? So much magical thinking, so much ideological 'reasoning' - to the extent that thinking and reasoning are even things of which our 'leaders' are even capable. I'm just sick of the whole lot - throw ALL the bums out!
Ole King Coal strikes a possibly mortal blow to the earth. Hope he's happy in his role as The Grinch Who Stole Christmas from his children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren. But WTF, if they secure their $$$ through multiple generations, maybe they can all book passage on a spaceship to the as-yet-undiscovered Earth II. Sick.