The long read in the FT this weekend under the title “Trump and the end of American soft power” is by one of the true doyens of US foreign policy thinking, Joseph Nye.
The MAGA occupation of West Wing reminds me of Francis Fukuyama describing early clientilism in "Political Order and Political Decay" (2014).
“The contrast between Jackson, the plainspoken frontiersman, and the elitist John Quincy Adams was to become an enduring one in American political culture. .. Jackson, by contrast, came from a relatively undistinguished backwoods family, had a spotty formal education, and made his reputation largely as a fighter and brawler.”
‘When Jackson came into office in 1829, he said that since he had won the election, he should decide who was appointed to federal offices, since the earlier patronage distribution of offices had turned officeholding into “a species of property” for the elite. In addition, he enunciated a “doctrine of the simplicity of work,” stating that “the duties of all public offices are, or at least admit of being made, so plain and simple that men of intelligence may readily qualify themselves for their performance.” This anti-elitist argument was articulated at a time when the average level of education in the United States did not go much beyond elementary school.
Jackson’s system was one of frequent rotation of officials, .. a practice that created enormous opportunities for placing party loyalists in bureaucratic positions. These offices could then be used as a basis for mobilizing political followers in campaigns: Jackson had converted an existing elite patronage system into the beginnings of a mass clientilistic one.’ (p. 141-143)
What is the answer from the Democrats? To shut up and hope for the best in the 2026 elections?
The self-satisfied smugness of the Democratic elite is beyond belief. When MAGA put them up against the wall, Schumer, Jeffries, Harris & Co will proclaim that the firing squad is a bipartisan committee of their good friends.
The only thing that seems capable of arousing them from their torpor is the merest possibility that Sanders, AOC or someone like that might gain any power or, much the same thing, money.
Precisely. The corporation that is the Democratic Party is reaping what they have sown by suborning their own primary process (twice, no less) to prevent Bernie's candidacy, only to top themselves by eliminating primaries altogether with the coronation of Kamala once Plan
A, pretending that Biden still had a functioning brain after the midterms, was ruthlessly exposed in the debate.
The sad part is, as the Prince bellows at the end of "Romeo and Juliet" -- "Where be these enemies? Capulet! Montague!
See what a scourge is laid upon your hate,
That heaven finds means to kill your joys with love;
I like your idea of both parties being lost in their mythologies. Unless and until the Democrats address this, they will not enjoy a decisive mandate election win again. There is just too much living in the past, doing what used to work, and refusing to do the introspection necessary to understand why they find themselves out of power. They lost the working class and many of the union vote, for crying out loud. And thus our proud ideals of Western Liberalism and American “soft power” dwindle away into darkness…
It is fair to say that the old world order, created by the USA in 1945, is ending. One of its mainstays was its economic and technological advantage. In 1929, the USA produced 90% of all cars. On the way to Moscow, the German armed forces were less than 20% motorised. In 1945, the USA had half of the world's industrial production.
Living standards have grown exponentially, but value creation has remained unequal. The USA continues to dominate.
However, global value chains are complicating the landscape. China is the challenger, with its production capacities and competitiveness having emerged in the shadow of the liberal order.
The critical question is how high the costs of restructuring the global order will be this time. The required investment over the last century was the European civil and world wars (1914 to 1945), which resulted in destrruction and the loss of 100 million lives.
Your analysis of the Democrats is soooo spot on. And it's not just recently. I saw the same attitude when I was professionally involved in California politics 50 years ago, when we convinced ourselves that electing Jerry Brown as Governor was a Good Thing.
"Under the sign of a “foreign policy for the American middle class”, Democratic elites were trying to shape a new script and a new reality." So the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the continuous crossing of weapons red lines in Ukraine and funding the war, the arming of jihadi terrorists in Syria were all for the benefit of us middle-classers? I don't recall experiencing any new reality.
I'm not sure the fact that the Democrats are clinging to their preferred political narrative is a problem as such. Electoral politics is always about telling your story, and trying to fit the electorate into it. The Republicans do the same thing, they just seem to be telling a more effective story.
The issue, surely, is that the Republicans now do actual policy the same way?
The postwar liberal order had a good run, but nothing lasts forever. Can the Dems find someone who’s a) not a professional politician b) a brand name for managerial competence? Because I think they’ll have an opening if they can…
The string-pullers operating the private company (you can look it up) that is the Democratic Party on behalf of their donor class are why we have Trump, not merely once, but twice. That they do not see this is as their responsibility doesn't surprise me in the least.
They are utterly, utterly bankrupt in every way that matters.
The MAGA occupation of West Wing reminds me of Francis Fukuyama describing early clientilism in "Political Order and Political Decay" (2014).
“The contrast between Jackson, the plainspoken frontiersman, and the elitist John Quincy Adams was to become an enduring one in American political culture. .. Jackson, by contrast, came from a relatively undistinguished backwoods family, had a spotty formal education, and made his reputation largely as a fighter and brawler.”
‘When Jackson came into office in 1829, he said that since he had won the election, he should decide who was appointed to federal offices, since the earlier patronage distribution of offices had turned officeholding into “a species of property” for the elite. In addition, he enunciated a “doctrine of the simplicity of work,” stating that “the duties of all public offices are, or at least admit of being made, so plain and simple that men of intelligence may readily qualify themselves for their performance.” This anti-elitist argument was articulated at a time when the average level of education in the United States did not go much beyond elementary school.
Jackson’s system was one of frequent rotation of officials, .. a practice that created enormous opportunities for placing party loyalists in bureaucratic positions. These offices could then be used as a basis for mobilizing political followers in campaigns: Jackson had converted an existing elite patronage system into the beginnings of a mass clientilistic one.’ (p. 141-143)
What is the answer from the Democrats? To shut up and hope for the best in the 2026 elections?
The self-satisfied smugness of the Democratic elite is beyond belief. When MAGA put them up against the wall, Schumer, Jeffries, Harris & Co will proclaim that the firing squad is a bipartisan committee of their good friends.
The only thing that seems capable of arousing them from their torpor is the merest possibility that Sanders, AOC or someone like that might gain any power or, much the same thing, money.
Precisely. The corporation that is the Democratic Party is reaping what they have sown by suborning their own primary process (twice, no less) to prevent Bernie's candidacy, only to top themselves by eliminating primaries altogether with the coronation of Kamala once Plan
A, pretending that Biden still had a functioning brain after the midterms, was ruthlessly exposed in the debate.
The sad part is, as the Prince bellows at the end of "Romeo and Juliet" -- "Where be these enemies? Capulet! Montague!
See what a scourge is laid upon your hate,
That heaven finds means to kill your joys with love;
And I, for winking at your discords too,
Have lost a brace of kinsmen. ALL ARE PUNISHED!"
I like your idea of both parties being lost in their mythologies. Unless and until the Democrats address this, they will not enjoy a decisive mandate election win again. There is just too much living in the past, doing what used to work, and refusing to do the introspection necessary to understand why they find themselves out of power. They lost the working class and many of the union vote, for crying out loud. And thus our proud ideals of Western Liberalism and American “soft power” dwindle away into darkness…
Thsnks Adam, if I may say so its a bit much on the esoteric side for my taste.
Is there any numbers how much US earn in Europe and how much the T2 antics might hurt their business or product?
It is fair to say that the old world order, created by the USA in 1945, is ending. One of its mainstays was its economic and technological advantage. In 1929, the USA produced 90% of all cars. On the way to Moscow, the German armed forces were less than 20% motorised. In 1945, the USA had half of the world's industrial production.
Living standards have grown exponentially, but value creation has remained unequal. The USA continues to dominate.
However, global value chains are complicating the landscape. China is the challenger, with its production capacities and competitiveness having emerged in the shadow of the liberal order.
The critical question is how high the costs of restructuring the global order will be this time. The required investment over the last century was the European civil and world wars (1914 to 1945), which resulted in destrruction and the loss of 100 million lives.
Your analysis of the Democrats is soooo spot on. And it's not just recently. I saw the same attitude when I was professionally involved in California politics 50 years ago, when we convinced ourselves that electing Jerry Brown as Governor was a Good Thing.
Fantastic article. The West Wing pantomime is no less weird than Phye and Pisistratus.
It’s an example of hopeful, and increasingly, wishful thinking.
It’s a safe place for where the critical faculties can retreat and wait to be proved right.
This isn’t a moment in a cycle - this is a nation being broken on a wheel.
It's blowback from the Empire of Lies ...
"Under the sign of a “foreign policy for the American middle class”, Democratic elites were trying to shape a new script and a new reality." So the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the continuous crossing of weapons red lines in Ukraine and funding the war, the arming of jihadi terrorists in Syria were all for the benefit of us middle-classers? I don't recall experiencing any new reality.
Precisely. Trump is merely the "mask off" moment of American Empire.
I'm not sure the fact that the Democrats are clinging to their preferred political narrative is a problem as such. Electoral politics is always about telling your story, and trying to fit the electorate into it. The Republicans do the same thing, they just seem to be telling a more effective story.
The issue, surely, is that the Republicans now do actual policy the same way?
The postwar liberal order had a good run, but nothing lasts forever. Can the Dems find someone who’s a) not a professional politician b) a brand name for managerial competence? Because I think they’ll have an opening if they can…
The string-pullers operating the private company (you can look it up) that is the Democratic Party on behalf of their donor class are why we have Trump, not merely once, but twice. That they do not see this is as their responsibility doesn't surprise me in the least.
They are utterly, utterly bankrupt in every way that matters.
Small note though: in which of its conflicts did Israel attack without provocation ("aggression")?