Given the importance of tech to the US economy and to our common sense of the future, given the role of the “magnificent seven” in the stock market, given the fact that Kamala Harris hails from California and is well connected in the tech scene and that J.D.
"broad church of “weird” that clusters around the Republican party today" is such a great phrase, I'm stealing it. Makes me think of JD Vance's "heartwarming" story, told at the convention, about how after his grandmother died they found 19 loaded handguns secreted about her house, from the couch cushions to the silverware drawer, a story received with rapturous applause from all in attendance.
" Ross Ulbricht, who in 2015 was sentenced to double life in prison plus forty years without parole, having built and run the online black market Silk Road, which mainly facilitated drug trades paid for in BTC. This is relevant in Powell’s post because last month Trump pledged, if elected, to commute Ulbricht’s sentence to time served, demonstrating awareness that the Silk Road operator’s incarceration is a major issue among veteran bitcoiners, who view the sentence handed down to Ulbricht as disproportionately harsh."
I'm extremely sympathetic to the idea of crypto, bitcoin and possibly ethereum. You have both ends of the spectrum. A low fee payment system that could theoretically bank 8 billion people and put them on the road to human dignity. You also have asshole coders, pricks and the dark web of dickishness. Man I hope I get no blowback for that comment. I think I'd fucking cry. I've spent a lot of time around engineers. Less so for coders but they can be absolute fucking assholes. The self aggrandizing nature of intellect (which I'm sometimes guilty of) and specialization is a form of gatekeeping. You'd think we all would show some humility as the goal is not build silos, bunkers, and own serfs. It should be human flourishing. No matter how rich you are, it's a naive view that you dont need to cooperate.
It's wild that Trump's promise to pardon or commute the sentence of a guy who ran an online illegal-drug marketplace hasn't gotten more attention. Harris certainly wants to draw the contrast between herself, former prosecutor, and Donald Trump, current felon. Why isn't this Exhibit A? (alongside Trump's own felony convictions, of course.)
This article left me with a disturbing suspicion the Democrats are pulling their punches on this because they're afraid of angering the CryptoBros.
I agree. The mishandling of GFC but mathematically exponential growth of the magnificent 7 since 2000 and Citizens United puts you in Silicon Valley's pocket. That is no longer a representative democracy or republic.
I find the whole thing totally insane. The law and order candidate is 100% behind a "token" which has literally no practical use other than to facilitate criminal transactions and speculate on its arbitrarily determined value. The whole thing leaves me completely dumbstruck.
Crypto literally destroys the basis of US dominance in the world by undermining the US Dollar. It makes no sense.
The Republicans are going to completely torpedo the US economy if they get in again, it'll be a few years of frothy hedonism and then a crash that will make the GFC look like a minor correction.
I highly recommend this Charbook entry (#302) to the 40% of Americans involved with crypto and the stock market. Beyond speculation on the "magnificent seven" there are other issues to explore: global money laundering and fentanyl production/distribution, hijacking of businesses/hospitals through bitcoin blackmail (including my previous accountant); stories about certain national alliances using crypto currency to undermine the dollar as the preferred international currency.
The fundamental promise of cryptocurrency - escape from state issued currency - seems prima facie against US interests at this time. Electoral posturing notwithstanding.
Trump front-ran his crypto support, most likely. The question is how he will handle disclosure. An undisclosed sizeable position, if elected, that turned into a GOAT trade - might be the biggest market manipulation ever. Dirty Donny.
Dan was trying a clever rhetorical trick known as "Feigned ignorance." Although it true, with Republicans it's getting increasingly hard to know when the ignorance is feigned and when it's real.
Of the 91 felony counts against the former president I really did think all had been dismissed - I forgot that "the judge ruled was a yearslong scheme to dupe banks" - never mind the banks testimony that he had long been a good customer and that they would gladly do business with him in the future; nor was there a victim; but have it your way - convicted! Then his poll numbers rise.
Politicians should beware. The crypto world reminds me of the pyramid (Ponzi) schemes that operated in Albania in the 1990s. They were big enough to contribute to then President Sali Berisha's election campaign, and to get some protection from him. When it was suggested that the pyramid schemes were vehicles for money laundering Berisha said that "Our pyramid schemes are the cleanest pyramid schemes in Europe." It was estimated that two thirds of Albanians put money into them. But when the pyramid schemes collapsed, the result was the collapse of Belisha's government and a near civil war in which 2000 people died. Trump should stick with his initial sense of when something is bullshit, and Harris should keep these people at arms length.
""Our pyramid schemes are the cleanest pyramid schemes in Europe." Wow! Did he really say that? several hunders folks believe one thing, it can be called a cult. However, if one can get several million souls to believe the very same thing, it is called a Religion. This reminds me an interesting docuseries I watched on netflix: Bad Boy billionnaires: India!
"Trump should stick with his initial sense of when something is bullshit..."
Yes, his initial opinion was "This is bullshit", his new opinion is "This is bullshit AND I CAN GET A PIECE OF IT." Makes all the difference in the world, where Trump is concerned.
Hey Adam—I'm a huge fan of your economic analysis, but I always find your analysis of the crypto space a dramatic oversimplification.
I've known about Bitcoin since 2010, when I got involved in the Slow Money movement (essentially, the exact opposite of Bitcoin). I joined the crypto industry when I co-founded a project focused on community governance and financing of responsible land stewardship, leveraging blockchain and remote sensing technology.
I'll be one of the first to admit that crypto is dominated by libertarians, many of whom sympathize with Trump. I've written critiques towards this end over the years. But for that matter, the United States is also dominated by libertarians who sympathize with Trump, and yet journalist regularly highlight other factions and demographics within our polis.
The first place I'd point would be the wunderkind of crypto, Vitalik Buterin. In his blog post of July 17th, "Against choosing your political allegiances based on who is 'pro-crypto,'" Vitalik sagely reminds the barbaric hoards that "crypto" is about a lot more than trading coins, and that Trump is their enemy. The movement was founded in the values of the cypherpunk movement—a movement whose warnings regarding the panopticon have come to pass in such examples as Prism and China's social credit system. The crypto movement offers solutions to Zuboff's "Surveillance Capitalism," although many of these technologies and customs are still nascent.
Next I'd call out the journalism of Brett Scott, the untiring advocate of the rights conferred through cash, and the pitfalls of the cashless economy. If you haven't read his work, I suggest starting with "Cloudmoney." Although Scott is often a critic of the crypto industry, his work and journalism are part of the broad tent of the crypto movement.
Then there is the work of Ethan Buchman, founder of Cycles Money, and co-founder the Cosmos blockchain ecosystem. Cycles leverages blockchain technology towards the end of credit clearing (ways of reducing the liquidity needs of regional economies).
Then there is the Regenerative Finance or "ReFi" movement. Last I checked, there are over one hundred projects in the crypto space focused on "nature positive" work—whether that be in financing regenerative agriculture, carbon drawdown, solar electricity generation, or related work.
And then there is the field of zero-knowledge proofs, which have gone through massive technological breakthroughs over the past decade, solely as a result of investment from the crypto space. These technologies will form the backbone of the next generation of peer-to-peer encrypted messaging and computation.
To come back to your writing here: Gensler and the SEC have not been interested in "regulating" the crypto industry; they have repeatedly refused to regulate, instead filing a series of enforcement actions and saying that every single one is a "one-off" that doesn't establish any precedent for the industry. From someone who is about as anti-Republican as you can get: the Republican platform to regulate the vast majority of tokens under the CFTC is good policy.
Unfortunately, the only time I've heard regulators say anything vaguely coherent on the crypto industry, they're Republican. When I hear Warren and others speak on the subject, it is as though they haven't even bothered to read the first paragraph of Wikipedia on what "crypto" even is. How can regulators engage with an industry about which they've been unwilling to learn even the most basic fundamentals? (For example, SBF and FTX are only in the most tangential ways related to crypto–centralized exchanges are Web 2 technology, not Web 3).
Saying that "crypto" is a fascist movement in Trump's pocket is like saying, in 2005, that we might as well give up on the internet. Sure—there is a lot of sketchy stuff going on; but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
The risk here is that: unless Democrats put in the time to form a coherent stance on crypto, they will alienate the substantial movement of researchers putting crypto to good use, and force them to vote for Republican representatives that will allow their professional endeavors a regulatory regime within the US (just to clarify—Trump is not one of the Republicans who understands what crypto is).
I know you're not the one I need to convince on this—I regularly call my representative Warren and others on this matter (although her office hasn't ever gotten back to me). But it is frustrating when I read articles like this that paint the picture in black-and-white terms that oversimplify the subject to the point of being caricature of reality.
"At a deep level, crypto ideology shares some elements with the current Republican mood. It is a cocktail mixed of arcane tech, strange futurism, libertarianism, phobic attitudes towards the state and a dark view of human nature. It does not make for a good mix with American liberalism. You might say that it belongs in the broad church of “weird” that clusters around the Republican party today."
Have you heard of this crypto guy, Sam Bankman Freid? He seemed to mix very well with the Dems.
Very appreciative to get the full contest. I'm an active market participant and was vaguely informed that Vice president kamala Harris was to speak at this crypto convention, then cancelled etc.... then I heard about former president Donald Trump appearance. I now, thanks to you, have a full picture.
Doesn’t matter. I’m sure the democrats will regulate it, tax it , attempt to ban it , and finally take some of it under the table to enrich themselves and their donor class. Mr Obama is very close to billionaire status . He’ll get there .
"broad church of “weird” that clusters around the Republican party today" is such a great phrase, I'm stealing it. Makes me think of JD Vance's "heartwarming" story, told at the convention, about how after his grandmother died they found 19 loaded handguns secreted about her house, from the couch cushions to the silverware drawer, a story received with rapturous applause from all in attendance.
Well, Trump is if nothing else an opportunist.
But crypto is a casino play regardless -- for gamblers only.
I recognize your point, but I think crypto requires more than just luck, it's also experience
" Ross Ulbricht, who in 2015 was sentenced to double life in prison plus forty years without parole, having built and run the online black market Silk Road, which mainly facilitated drug trades paid for in BTC. This is relevant in Powell’s post because last month Trump pledged, if elected, to commute Ulbricht’s sentence to time served, demonstrating awareness that the Silk Road operator’s incarceration is a major issue among veteran bitcoiners, who view the sentence handed down to Ulbricht as disproportionately harsh."
I'm extremely sympathetic to the idea of crypto, bitcoin and possibly ethereum. You have both ends of the spectrum. A low fee payment system that could theoretically bank 8 billion people and put them on the road to human dignity. You also have asshole coders, pricks and the dark web of dickishness. Man I hope I get no blowback for that comment. I think I'd fucking cry. I've spent a lot of time around engineers. Less so for coders but they can be absolute fucking assholes. The self aggrandizing nature of intellect (which I'm sometimes guilty of) and specialization is a form of gatekeeping. You'd think we all would show some humility as the goal is not build silos, bunkers, and own serfs. It should be human flourishing. No matter how rich you are, it's a naive view that you dont need to cooperate.
It's wild that Trump's promise to pardon or commute the sentence of a guy who ran an online illegal-drug marketplace hasn't gotten more attention. Harris certainly wants to draw the contrast between herself, former prosecutor, and Donald Trump, current felon. Why isn't this Exhibit A? (alongside Trump's own felony convictions, of course.)
This article left me with a disturbing suspicion the Democrats are pulling their punches on this because they're afraid of angering the CryptoBros.
I agree. The mishandling of GFC but mathematically exponential growth of the magnificent 7 since 2000 and Citizens United puts you in Silicon Valley's pocket. That is no longer a representative democracy or republic.
I find the whole thing totally insane. The law and order candidate is 100% behind a "token" which has literally no practical use other than to facilitate criminal transactions and speculate on its arbitrarily determined value. The whole thing leaves me completely dumbstruck.
Crypto literally destroys the basis of US dominance in the world by undermining the US Dollar. It makes no sense.
The Republicans are going to completely torpedo the US economy if they get in again, it'll be a few years of frothy hedonism and then a crash that will make the GFC look like a minor correction.
Insane.
When Republican voters hear "Law and order" they only think of one thing and it's not regulating bankers and financial fraudsters.
These are my utopian use cases. https://www.britannica.com/money/crypto-use-cases
The problem is the same tech used to protect people can be used to exploit.
I don't know enough about cryptography, coding to minimize eliminate that risk.
That crypto survey doesn’t look at all reliable.
Yeah, I have a hard time believing 40% of Americans own crypto.
I think most of the aggregation is in the hands of governments or politicians, so that is a big factor in crypto price instability
I highly recommend this Charbook entry (#302) to the 40% of Americans involved with crypto and the stock market. Beyond speculation on the "magnificent seven" there are other issues to explore: global money laundering and fentanyl production/distribution, hijacking of businesses/hospitals through bitcoin blackmail (including my previous accountant); stories about certain national alliances using crypto currency to undermine the dollar as the preferred international currency.
The fundamental promise of cryptocurrency - escape from state issued currency - seems prima facie against US interests at this time. Electoral posturing notwithstanding.
They want TOTAL FREEDOM FROM THE STATE, also the state should buy lots of their bitcoin, to help prop up prices.
Classic 1920’s Guilded Age mentality.
Trump front-ran his crypto support, most likely. The question is how he will handle disclosure. An undisclosed sizeable position, if elected, that turned into a GOAT trade - might be the biggest market manipulation ever. Dirty Donny.
Fraud Dan. He was convicted of falsifying business records.
Dan was trying a clever rhetorical trick known as "Feigned ignorance." Although it true, with Republicans it's getting increasingly hard to know when the ignorance is feigned and when it's real.
"by the end of today we could have a convicted-felon Republican presidential nominee"; what has he been convicted of?
Fraud. But you knew that, of course.
Of the 91 felony counts against the former president I really did think all had been dismissed - I forgot that "the judge ruled was a yearslong scheme to dupe banks" - never mind the banks testimony that he had long been a good customer and that they would gladly do business with him in the future; nor was there a victim; but have it your way - convicted! Then his poll numbers rise.
I'm so glad you and I can agree he's a convicted felon, I believe that was the question you raised, wasn't it? Anyway, have a good one, Dan!
thank you; see - we deplorables arent so bad;
According to NY state law, Trump is not convicted felon until sentencing…. Steve B sure likes to post a lot…..
"According to NY state law, Trump is not convicted felon until sentencing..."
Know how these things we call "hyperlinks" work? One might be appropriate here, just a thought.
Adam Schiff also referred to T. as a convicted felon - Harvard Law - should know better - but as my pal SteveB says: feigned ignorance
I do!
Politicians should beware. The crypto world reminds me of the pyramid (Ponzi) schemes that operated in Albania in the 1990s. They were big enough to contribute to then President Sali Berisha's election campaign, and to get some protection from him. When it was suggested that the pyramid schemes were vehicles for money laundering Berisha said that "Our pyramid schemes are the cleanest pyramid schemes in Europe." It was estimated that two thirds of Albanians put money into them. But when the pyramid schemes collapsed, the result was the collapse of Belisha's government and a near civil war in which 2000 people died. Trump should stick with his initial sense of when something is bullshit, and Harris should keep these people at arms length.
""Our pyramid schemes are the cleanest pyramid schemes in Europe." Wow! Did he really say that? several hunders folks believe one thing, it can be called a cult. However, if one can get several million souls to believe the very same thing, it is called a Religion. This reminds me an interesting docuseries I watched on netflix: Bad Boy billionnaires: India!
"Trump should stick with his initial sense of when something is bullshit..."
Yes, his initial opinion was "This is bullshit", his new opinion is "This is bullshit AND I CAN GET A PIECE OF IT." Makes all the difference in the world, where Trump is concerned.
TRAITOR! 34 Count Criminal! Homeland Security Document THIEF! Liar! CHEATER! RUNNING TO EVADE PROSECUTION!!!
Hey Adam—I'm a huge fan of your economic analysis, but I always find your analysis of the crypto space a dramatic oversimplification.
I've known about Bitcoin since 2010, when I got involved in the Slow Money movement (essentially, the exact opposite of Bitcoin). I joined the crypto industry when I co-founded a project focused on community governance and financing of responsible land stewardship, leveraging blockchain and remote sensing technology.
I'll be one of the first to admit that crypto is dominated by libertarians, many of whom sympathize with Trump. I've written critiques towards this end over the years. But for that matter, the United States is also dominated by libertarians who sympathize with Trump, and yet journalist regularly highlight other factions and demographics within our polis.
The first place I'd point would be the wunderkind of crypto, Vitalik Buterin. In his blog post of July 17th, "Against choosing your political allegiances based on who is 'pro-crypto,'" Vitalik sagely reminds the barbaric hoards that "crypto" is about a lot more than trading coins, and that Trump is their enemy. The movement was founded in the values of the cypherpunk movement—a movement whose warnings regarding the panopticon have come to pass in such examples as Prism and China's social credit system. The crypto movement offers solutions to Zuboff's "Surveillance Capitalism," although many of these technologies and customs are still nascent.
Next I'd call out the journalism of Brett Scott, the untiring advocate of the rights conferred through cash, and the pitfalls of the cashless economy. If you haven't read his work, I suggest starting with "Cloudmoney." Although Scott is often a critic of the crypto industry, his work and journalism are part of the broad tent of the crypto movement.
Then there is the work of Ethan Buchman, founder of Cycles Money, and co-founder the Cosmos blockchain ecosystem. Cycles leverages blockchain technology towards the end of credit clearing (ways of reducing the liquidity needs of regional economies).
Then there is the Regenerative Finance or "ReFi" movement. Last I checked, there are over one hundred projects in the crypto space focused on "nature positive" work—whether that be in financing regenerative agriculture, carbon drawdown, solar electricity generation, or related work.
And then there is the field of zero-knowledge proofs, which have gone through massive technological breakthroughs over the past decade, solely as a result of investment from the crypto space. These technologies will form the backbone of the next generation of peer-to-peer encrypted messaging and computation.
To come back to your writing here: Gensler and the SEC have not been interested in "regulating" the crypto industry; they have repeatedly refused to regulate, instead filing a series of enforcement actions and saying that every single one is a "one-off" that doesn't establish any precedent for the industry. From someone who is about as anti-Republican as you can get: the Republican platform to regulate the vast majority of tokens under the CFTC is good policy.
Unfortunately, the only time I've heard regulators say anything vaguely coherent on the crypto industry, they're Republican. When I hear Warren and others speak on the subject, it is as though they haven't even bothered to read the first paragraph of Wikipedia on what "crypto" even is. How can regulators engage with an industry about which they've been unwilling to learn even the most basic fundamentals? (For example, SBF and FTX are only in the most tangential ways related to crypto–centralized exchanges are Web 2 technology, not Web 3).
Saying that "crypto" is a fascist movement in Trump's pocket is like saying, in 2005, that we might as well give up on the internet. Sure—there is a lot of sketchy stuff going on; but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
The risk here is that: unless Democrats put in the time to form a coherent stance on crypto, they will alienate the substantial movement of researchers putting crypto to good use, and force them to vote for Republican representatives that will allow their professional endeavors a regulatory regime within the US (just to clarify—Trump is not one of the Republicans who understands what crypto is).
I know you're not the one I need to convince on this—I regularly call my representative Warren and others on this matter (although her office hasn't ever gotten back to me). But it is frustrating when I read articles like this that paint the picture in black-and-white terms that oversimplify the subject to the point of being caricature of reality.
"At a deep level, crypto ideology shares some elements with the current Republican mood. It is a cocktail mixed of arcane tech, strange futurism, libertarianism, phobic attitudes towards the state and a dark view of human nature. It does not make for a good mix with American liberalism. You might say that it belongs in the broad church of “weird” that clusters around the Republican party today."
Have you heard of this crypto guy, Sam Bankman Freid? He seemed to mix very well with the Dems.
Very appreciative to get the full contest. I'm an active market participant and was vaguely informed that Vice president kamala Harris was to speak at this crypto convention, then cancelled etc.... then I heard about former president Donald Trump appearance. I now, thanks to you, have a full picture.
I think no matter what the trend is, investing in crypto for the long term is definitely more risky than short-term trading
Doesn’t matter. I’m sure the democrats will regulate it, tax it , attempt to ban it , and finally take some of it under the table to enrich themselves and their donor class. Mr Obama is very close to billionaire status . He’ll get there .
Please link to anything valid showing Obama took money under the table.
God, I hope somebody regulates it. How many Sam Bankman-Frieds do you want? And why shouldn't 'it be taxed?
The campaign contribution limit is definitely less than $1 million, hope he gets the death sentence for this.