In 2023 the escalation of violence around the world was horrifying. As the FT remarked: The anecdotal evidence that war is surging round the world is confirmed by the numbers. A recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies documented 183 ongoing conflicts around the world, the highest number in more than three decades. And that figure was arrived at before the outbreak of the war in Gaza.
This links back to an important point in American politics: Human beings are not primarily motivated by rational self interest, identity is a much more powerful motivator. So it's common for people to vote against their narrowly defined economic interests because their identification with a certain political party is just too powerful (example: rural Americans continuing to vote for a Republican party that promises and delivers them nothing.)
On the international scale, people often sign on to nationalist causes that are disastrous for their interests, both short-term and long-term, because nationalist identity is just too powerful to resist.
Extremely insightful Adam, thank you. Puzzled by one word:
"The catastrophe may start with the American electorate once again rejecting CENTRIST Democrats in favor of Donald Trump. That prospect dramatizes the urgency of developing a PROGRESSIVE politics that is not a return to America’s hegemonic past but accepts and responds to the huge changes within the United States and in the wider world."
It was with the most painful reluctance that I read this passage and recognized it’s truth: “The model of economic convergence leading to geopolitical and political alignment, is dead. Indeed, it has long been a vain hope.”
Instantly reminded of Adam Curtis’s films of the past 15 years. He has documented the decay of this vain hope most accurately.
The history is a bit myopic. It ignores the Arab countries driving out their Jews in the 50s and the Russians effectively doing the same in the 80s. Is the sudentland neo colonialism or nationalism. Why did the world offer a two state solution in 1948. Is there another example of neocolonialism besides Israel.
Thank you Adam, for a year of wisdom and insights - a modern renaissance man! And for this latest newsletter where your humanity and learning is so apparent. Here’s to peace and prosperity for all in 2024... Ken
1. The "horror" of October 7, 2023 with almost 1200 killed was partially created by Israeli military, who Hellfired and tank shelled, hundreds of cars and tens of houses, with Israeli civilians in them, so to no risk any "terrorist" escaping... But as an occupier, Israel has no right for self defense, legally and morally. ANd that Oct 7 "horror" has been diluted by an order of magnitude by the killings of 21,000+ and counting and injuring of over 55,000+ Palestinians.
2. Japan is not at "peace" with Russia. No treaty and still has territorial disputes...
By "a progressive politics" do you mean: continuing open borders, support for LGBQXYZ+, Antifa, MSNBC/CNN version of "Trump is a Russian agent", Nov 7 "insurrection" and jailing of anyone who went near the capitol, covid policy, unlimited support for Ukraine . . .?
I was intrigued by the map on the fifth slide of your slidepack. The map of settler/non-settlers states.
But I think it is not that helpful to consider a country as settler/non-settler, because, as far as I understand the definition, many countries are a combination of settler and non-settler parts.
Whether we like it or not large parts of many countries have been settled since 1492. I don't want to start a flame war, but China, Russia, Morocco, Turkey and Myanmar come to mind; probably also India, Indonesia and many others, but I'm no expert.
When such a large part of the world is a "settler", how does the distinction help?
Russia's actions in Ukraine since 2014 are also best understood in terms of settler-colonialism. The systematic obliteration of Ukraine as an idea in occupied areas, the persecution of Tatars, the colonisation of Crimea by an estimated 500,000 Russians and even the reinvention of the sepoy after LNR and DNR conscripts were press ganged into the first of the now infamous Russian meatwaves, all speak of an imperial project. To talk instead of Russian nationalism is to concede too much to Kremlin talking points and to unthinkingly fall into another Western European orientalist mire, but of Eastern Europe.
I am not sure your conclusion flows from your excellent analysis.
You should address what Biden should do vis-vis Israel NOW. in the Middle East--and maybe elsewhere as well--everything is likely to flow from that. Yes, the assassination of Rabin was a tragic turning point. But there may be no better approach than to try to return to something like that point almost 30 years ago.
Domestic policy has little or nothing to do with that.
On a more general level, just because trade and economic progress have not had the halcyon effect that many (including me) hoped for, that does not mean that the idea of global economic progress should be abandoned. In the long run, it remains the great hope, though it has to work better for more people.
We study history to learn from it. But taking its lessons about ideas that have not yet succeeded as being a call for massive change frequently is a mistake.
Your analysis of the change in assumptions post-1948 is spot-on. If we could go back to the foundation of Israel, we would hope to do a better job, though i do not know what that would entail. But having botched the fundamentals back then, creating a modus vivendi has proven extremely difficult. Rabin saw that--and it is for that that he was killed, IMO.
October 7, 2023, began the fifth war between Israel and Gaza since 2007. The horrendous gruesomeness of the attack by Hamas and Fatah under approval from Iran and Lebanon, again demonstrates the futility of economic progress assuring peace between ideologically opposing parties. Such is the surprise also created by China and US and EU as well as Russia and the EU. In short, democracies and dictatorships are mutual mortal enemies, using periods of non- violence to gain military power in order to attack again. Wars make money for elite investors. Hence, there is the continuous excitement for starting wars.
The logic of History toward an incremental international political creation? America has two political ideas it needs to lead or act strongly with: Liberalism and Republicanism. These ideas reject the ideas of power prominence, hierarchy, and anarchy. America created a large political that realizes universal power and freedom to participate in the creation of its political. International History needs these ideas to be realized! What an idea to reject natural law based on hierarchy and instead realize natural law based on universal power and freedom to participate and create politicals!!!
Excellent but missing the "elephant in the Livingrooom" fact that ALL of this is related to patriarchal models: based on patriarchal monotheism, hierarchical zero sum conflict visions based in patriarchy, a thriving international arms economy run by patriarchal figures, and continued worldwide misogyny denying the world of political leadership by women with other more sustainable models and approaches to human relationship. When patriarchy blows up humanity will there be a possibility of a equal or better than equal power relationship? Not if the international academy generating analysis keeps ignoring the obvious!
This links back to an important point in American politics: Human beings are not primarily motivated by rational self interest, identity is a much more powerful motivator. So it's common for people to vote against their narrowly defined economic interests because their identification with a certain political party is just too powerful (example: rural Americans continuing to vote for a Republican party that promises and delivers them nothing.)
On the international scale, people often sign on to nationalist causes that are disastrous for their interests, both short-term and long-term, because nationalist identity is just too powerful to resist.
Extremely insightful Adam, thank you. Puzzled by one word:
"The catastrophe may start with the American electorate once again rejecting CENTRIST Democrats in favor of Donald Trump. That prospect dramatizes the urgency of developing a PROGRESSIVE politics that is not a return to America’s hegemonic past but accepts and responds to the huge changes within the United States and in the wider world."
Shouldn't "progressive" read "center-left"?
Valuable insights as always Adam, thank you.
It was with the most painful reluctance that I read this passage and recognized it’s truth: “The model of economic convergence leading to geopolitical and political alignment, is dead. Indeed, it has long been a vain hope.”
Instantly reminded of Adam Curtis’s films of the past 15 years. He has documented the decay of this vain hope most accurately.
The history is a bit myopic. It ignores the Arab countries driving out their Jews in the 50s and the Russians effectively doing the same in the 80s. Is the sudentland neo colonialism or nationalism. Why did the world offer a two state solution in 1948. Is there another example of neocolonialism besides Israel.
Thank you Adam, for a year of wisdom and insights - a modern renaissance man! And for this latest newsletter where your humanity and learning is so apparent. Here’s to peace and prosperity for all in 2024... Ken
Two qualms:
1. The "horror" of October 7, 2023 with almost 1200 killed was partially created by Israeli military, who Hellfired and tank shelled, hundreds of cars and tens of houses, with Israeli civilians in them, so to no risk any "terrorist" escaping... But as an occupier, Israel has no right for self defense, legally and morally. ANd that Oct 7 "horror" has been diluted by an order of magnitude by the killings of 21,000+ and counting and injuring of over 55,000+ Palestinians.
2. Japan is not at "peace" with Russia. No treaty and still has territorial disputes...
By "a progressive politics" do you mean: continuing open borders, support for LGBQXYZ+, Antifa, MSNBC/CNN version of "Trump is a Russian agent", Nov 7 "insurrection" and jailing of anyone who went near the capitol, covid policy, unlimited support for Ukraine . . .?
Thanks for the post.
I was intrigued by the map on the fifth slide of your slidepack. The map of settler/non-settlers states.
But I think it is not that helpful to consider a country as settler/non-settler, because, as far as I understand the definition, many countries are a combination of settler and non-settler parts.
Whether we like it or not large parts of many countries have been settled since 1492. I don't want to start a flame war, but China, Russia, Morocco, Turkey and Myanmar come to mind; probably also India, Indonesia and many others, but I'm no expert.
When such a large part of the world is a "settler", how does the distinction help?
Russia's actions in Ukraine since 2014 are also best understood in terms of settler-colonialism. The systematic obliteration of Ukraine as an idea in occupied areas, the persecution of Tatars, the colonisation of Crimea by an estimated 500,000 Russians and even the reinvention of the sepoy after LNR and DNR conscripts were press ganged into the first of the now infamous Russian meatwaves, all speak of an imperial project. To talk instead of Russian nationalism is to concede too much to Kremlin talking points and to unthinkingly fall into another Western European orientalist mire, but of Eastern Europe.
I am not sure your conclusion flows from your excellent analysis.
You should address what Biden should do vis-vis Israel NOW. in the Middle East--and maybe elsewhere as well--everything is likely to flow from that. Yes, the assassination of Rabin was a tragic turning point. But there may be no better approach than to try to return to something like that point almost 30 years ago.
Domestic policy has little or nothing to do with that.
On a more general level, just because trade and economic progress have not had the halcyon effect that many (including me) hoped for, that does not mean that the idea of global economic progress should be abandoned. In the long run, it remains the great hope, though it has to work better for more people.
We study history to learn from it. But taking its lessons about ideas that have not yet succeeded as being a call for massive change frequently is a mistake.
Your analysis of the change in assumptions post-1948 is spot-on. If we could go back to the foundation of Israel, we would hope to do a better job, though i do not know what that would entail. But having botched the fundamentals back then, creating a modus vivendi has proven extremely difficult. Rabin saw that--and it is for that that he was killed, IMO.
Its impossible to conceive of self interest without identity.
Marc Herlands
Writes Marc’s Substack
4 mins ago
October 7, 2023, began the fifth war between Israel and Gaza since 2007. The horrendous gruesomeness of the attack by Hamas and Fatah under approval from Iran and Lebanon, again demonstrates the futility of economic progress assuring peace between ideologically opposing parties. Such is the surprise also created by China and US and EU as well as Russia and the EU. In short, democracies and dictatorships are mutual mortal enemies, using periods of non- violence to gain military power in order to attack again. Wars make money for elite investors. Hence, there is the continuous excitement for starting wars.
The logic of History toward an incremental international political creation? America has two political ideas it needs to lead or act strongly with: Liberalism and Republicanism. These ideas reject the ideas of power prominence, hierarchy, and anarchy. America created a large political that realizes universal power and freedom to participate in the creation of its political. International History needs these ideas to be realized! What an idea to reject natural law based on hierarchy and instead realize natural law based on universal power and freedom to participate and create politicals!!!
Uhh... that link to the Charnysh piece doesn’t work. Anyone have an actual link or enough info to track the piece down?
Thanks!
Scotland :-(
Excellent but missing the "elephant in the Livingrooom" fact that ALL of this is related to patriarchal models: based on patriarchal monotheism, hierarchical zero sum conflict visions based in patriarchy, a thriving international arms economy run by patriarchal figures, and continued worldwide misogyny denying the world of political leadership by women with other more sustainable models and approaches to human relationship. When patriarchy blows up humanity will there be a possibility of a equal or better than equal power relationship? Not if the international academy generating analysis keeps ignoring the obvious!