For the last twenty years the German economy has thrived on globalization. Now that formula seems under pressure from many sides. Close trading and investment relations with China are yet another facet of the “German model” - after Russian gas - that is being called into question by our current polycrisis.
Germany and Russia are natural allies, in that each has what the other wants and can best get via cooperating. Germany and China are also for the same reason natural allies, albeit to a lesser extent than Germany and Russia.
United States policy has long been to prevent these alliances from coming to fruition.
I'm also curious what you mean here -- it certainly sounded to me like you were also talking about trade. I think this interpretation flows naturally because, while we can't say this about Russia, Germany's foreign policy would seem to be utterly subservient to its economic policy.
Back during the 20th when this wasn't so true (particularly from 1890-1945), the two countries were very natural enemies, the two pretenders to the title "Hegemon of Europe". It didn't have much of anything to do with outside meddling that the League of Three Emperors failed. Their ambitions were too grand to remain content in alliance with one another.
Today, we all know who the hegemon of Europe is: the USA. This has been pretty clear since 1991, but it has never been clearer than in 2022. Yet while this causes Russia quite a bit of consternation, it doesn't seem to bother Germany much at all.
As you pointed out, Germany's interest is primarily in trade. The United States doesn't even allow Germany to do this freely, and United States policies also have the added bonus of flooding Germany with refugees and other pesky entanglements that in now ay benefit Germany.
Russia would like freedom of action, while the United States openly seeks to put a boot on Russia's neck as part of its overarching goal of maintaining its empire at all costs.
Well, my trouble with all this is, again, Germany doesn't seem to care. German voters seem pretty happy with the arrangement of being lightly subservient to the US, in exchange for not really having to worry about security. They're not worried about the worst the US could do to them, while they ARE worried about the worst Russia could do to them. This is the basis of the alliance, and historically it's probably the most solid foundation an alliance can have: fear and hatred of the mutual enemy. After the Ukraine War, that's probably not going to change for at least a generation.
I also don't think the US has put much pressure on Germany to accept refugees. I'm sure some sort of US pressure would be applied to Germany if voters put the AfD in power and they worked to clamp down on immigration, but presumably it would be roughly the same sort of pressure Meloni in Italy is experiencing. Nothing that can't be overcome.
I never said that the United States has pressured Germany to accept refugees. I did say that Germany has gotten those refugees, as a direct and proximate result of America's middle eastern wars.
Among the German political classes, questioning the Atlanticist orientation of German policy is equivalent to standing up in the middle of a High Papal Mass to loudly demand that the person who just farted identify himself. That doesn't make it a rational policy, especially considering America's track record of aggression, the blowback from which tends to fall on Germany.
German long term success depends on the maintenance of the liberal rules based world*. Both Russia and China reject this.
* German dependence on commodity imports and export markets for its manufactured good makes it vulnerable when commercial ties can be abused or held hostage, as we have seen.
Russia and China aren't the evil empire. That would be the United States which routinely abuses the "liberal rules based international order" whenever it sees fit, on the flimsiest of pretexts.
So tell us about this "rules based international order" that allows the United States to attack countries around the world on a whim, appoint heads of state, etc..
"But it is quite another thing to claim that because Germany bought a lot of gas from Russia this materially contributed to the success of German exports, such that it is reasonable to say that the German model was dependent on “cheap Russian gas”. The evidence for that far-reaching causal claim is surprisingly weak."
I think that the proof is in the pudding. Will have to see how German industry, especially the sectors relying in cheap Russian gas are fearing.
"To critics it is pleasing to note the way in which the German model is unravelling and to highlight the way in which Germany’s year of success were owed to dirty compromises with regimes like those of Russia and China."??
Were the compromises dirty because Russia and China are dirty? Were they illegal? Antisocial? Unethical? Aesthetically repugnant?
Or did you just pull the phrase out of your ass because you felt obliged to badmouth the current Official Enemies?
“Full steam ahead in the wrong direction” –IW Economic Research Report
The IW is said to be on friendly terms with the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Germany’s incumbent foreign minister has been openly anti-Russia, anti-China, and pro-US. No surprise in them doing the chief diplomat’s bidding.
The West’s frantic pearl-clutching about avoiding dependencies appears highly irrational, firstly, because dependencies are an unavoidable fact of life in today’s interconnected world, and secondly, because the root of the current fracas can easily be found in the West’s geostrategic misstep, i.e., the expansion of NATO, to which Russia felt forced to react – after 30 years of pleading. The lesson to be drawn may well be that unless you keep poking you trade partners in the eye there is no need to worry about dependencies.
Great article. I’m interested in the labour side of this and how German unions have tried to negotiate their way through the dilemmas posed by these developments. Linde, incidentally, is now headquartered in the UK.
missing is a full blown discussion on the yuean/yen currency croos and highlight the FRA podcast discussion with Louis Gave/Yra Harris about this critical relationship---is the weak YEN a play to lock out Europe from China as suggested by Louis Gave
Germany and Russia are natural allies, in that each has what the other wants and can best get via cooperating. Germany and China are also for the same reason natural allies, albeit to a lesser extent than Germany and Russia.
United States policy has long been to prevent these alliances from coming to fruition.
Having complementary goods to trade with each other != allies.
Beyond short-term commercial interest alignment, the long-term strategic interests are diametrically opposed.
Bismarck evidently disagreed with you, and I think he had a pretty good grasp of an emerging Germany's strategic interests, eh?
Maybe he did, maybe he didn't, who knows.
What we do know is that 150 years have passed since then.
So they have -- and yet the geography remains strangely similar.
I said nothing about trade, nor did I limit the alliance to trade.
What long term strategic interests are you talking about?
I'm also curious what you mean here -- it certainly sounded to me like you were also talking about trade. I think this interpretation flows naturally because, while we can't say this about Russia, Germany's foreign policy would seem to be utterly subservient to its economic policy.
Back during the 20th when this wasn't so true (particularly from 1890-1945), the two countries were very natural enemies, the two pretenders to the title "Hegemon of Europe". It didn't have much of anything to do with outside meddling that the League of Three Emperors failed. Their ambitions were too grand to remain content in alliance with one another.
Today, we all know who the hegemon of Europe is: the USA. This has been pretty clear since 1991, but it has never been clearer than in 2022. Yet while this causes Russia quite a bit of consternation, it doesn't seem to bother Germany much at all.
As you pointed out, Germany's interest is primarily in trade. The United States doesn't even allow Germany to do this freely, and United States policies also have the added bonus of flooding Germany with refugees and other pesky entanglements that in now ay benefit Germany.
Russia would like freedom of action, while the United States openly seeks to put a boot on Russia's neck as part of its overarching goal of maintaining its empire at all costs.
Well, my trouble with all this is, again, Germany doesn't seem to care. German voters seem pretty happy with the arrangement of being lightly subservient to the US, in exchange for not really having to worry about security. They're not worried about the worst the US could do to them, while they ARE worried about the worst Russia could do to them. This is the basis of the alliance, and historically it's probably the most solid foundation an alliance can have: fear and hatred of the mutual enemy. After the Ukraine War, that's probably not going to change for at least a generation.
I also don't think the US has put much pressure on Germany to accept refugees. I'm sure some sort of US pressure would be applied to Germany if voters put the AfD in power and they worked to clamp down on immigration, but presumably it would be roughly the same sort of pressure Meloni in Italy is experiencing. Nothing that can't be overcome.
I never said that the United States has pressured Germany to accept refugees. I did say that Germany has gotten those refugees, as a direct and proximate result of America's middle eastern wars.
Among the German political classes, questioning the Atlanticist orientation of German policy is equivalent to standing up in the middle of a High Papal Mass to loudly demand that the person who just farted identify himself. That doesn't make it a rational policy, especially considering America's track record of aggression, the blowback from which tends to fall on Germany.
German long term success depends on the maintenance of the liberal rules based world*. Both Russia and China reject this.
* German dependence on commodity imports and export markets for its manufactured good makes it vulnerable when commercial ties can be abused or held hostage, as we have seen.
Russia and China aren't the evil empire. That would be the United States which routinely abuses the "liberal rules based international order" whenever it sees fit, on the flimsiest of pretexts.
Your Anti-American sentiment is clouding your analysis...
So tell us about this "rules based international order" that allows the United States to attack countries around the world on a whim, appoint heads of state, etc..
"But it is quite another thing to claim that because Germany bought a lot of gas from Russia this materially contributed to the success of German exports, such that it is reasonable to say that the German model was dependent on “cheap Russian gas”. The evidence for that far-reaching causal claim is surprisingly weak."
I think that the proof is in the pudding. Will have to see how German industry, especially the sectors relying in cheap Russian gas are fearing.
BASF saying they want to "permanently downsize" in Europe doesn't sound very encouraging.
The purpose of nato is to keep the Germans down the Americans in and the Russians out
"To critics it is pleasing to note the way in which the German model is unravelling and to highlight the way in which Germany’s year of success were owed to dirty compromises with regimes like those of Russia and China."??
Were the compromises dirty because Russia and China are dirty? Were they illegal? Antisocial? Unethical? Aesthetically repugnant?
Or did you just pull the phrase out of your ass because you felt obliged to badmouth the current Official Enemies?
“Full steam ahead in the wrong direction” –IW Economic Research Report
The IW is said to be on friendly terms with the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Germany’s incumbent foreign minister has been openly anti-Russia, anti-China, and pro-US. No surprise in them doing the chief diplomat’s bidding.
The West’s frantic pearl-clutching about avoiding dependencies appears highly irrational, firstly, because dependencies are an unavoidable fact of life in today’s interconnected world, and secondly, because the root of the current fracas can easily be found in the West’s geostrategic misstep, i.e., the expansion of NATO, to which Russia felt forced to react – after 30 years of pleading. The lesson to be drawn may well be that unless you keep poking you trade partners in the eye there is no need to worry about dependencies.
Great article. I’m interested in the labour side of this and how German unions have tried to negotiate their way through the dilemmas posed by these developments. Linde, incidentally, is now headquartered in the UK.
missing is a full blown discussion on the yuean/yen currency croos and highlight the FRA podcast discussion with Louis Gave/Yra Harris about this critical relationship---is the weak YEN a play to lock out Europe from China as suggested by Louis Gave
Even in widespread dissonance a new cohesion tends to develop. Will be interesting to see from where (and why) it emerges.