In deciphering the global polycrisis it can be helpful to break down the interplay of crisis dynamics into regional systems. The EU and its neighborhood, for instance, is one such region, tied together by political institutions, economics and geopolitics.
What a breath of fresh thinking----FED Chair Powell claims his policies need to be domestic oriented but this reveals the impact on many nations from the continued efforts at zero interest rates and massive liquidity infusions .Now the rising dollar is causing too much pain on many of the economically fragile around the globe.It is Tooze who is picking up the baton from Susan Strange and Robert Cox and showing the flaws in the micro thought processes of the modelers of economic outcomes
It makes no sense to compare per capita income between India and Bangladesh (or for that matter, for most countries) without adjusting for purchasing power. If we do that, the World Bank tells us that India stands at 6,300 and Bangladesh at 5,200 (USD but PPP adjusted current 2020 value).
Good analysis, but I notice the last paragraph says "In the global power game... India... serves to further enhance the pressure within South Asia, the opposite of what a hegemonic strategy would entail."
Perhaps India has no intention to adopt a hegemonic strategy, and is just being a realist, looking after their people given their challenges. Just like China's is not a hegemonic strategy either, contrary to Western demonisation - it is not in their cultural DNA - if you look at history, they were the #1 and #2 World powers for thousands of years except the past c250 (which, in all likelihood, is an aberration soon to be reversed), yet they did not colonise, attack and "contain" everybody everywhere, like the "rules based", "human rights upholding" West, did they?
"China is a key creditor of both Sri Lanka and Pakistan." There is no evidence provided for this claim, claim that is also contradicted by previous statements, that Sri Lanka borrowed from commercial banks and Pakistan from institutional borrowers like IMF, World Bank and governments.
There were a handful of studies showing that it is a falsehood perpetrated by the west about the "debt diplomacy" pursued by China. Beside being a lie, it reeks of projection. The quoted text seems a gentle nudge from the author on the reader's mind to continue to believe this nonsense.
I think India has enormous long term potential without all the baggage, problems and uncertainty that is starting to weigh down China e.g. India is largely "settled" politically as no matter how messy or short sighted it's democracy can be with policy shifts (along with the Pakistan issue), there's no uncertainty about its political system continuing for the long term or being dependent on the whims of one person in charge....
Thank you for zooming out our perspective, maybe $4/gal gas in the US isn’t as much of a crisis. I would be interested in a similar analysis applied to the United States’ response to global heating caused disasters: e.g. New Orleans, Houston, the Atlantic & Gulf coasts, Puerto Rico.
Interesting choice to use the term “polycrisis”. It’s not a word in common circulation as Google Trends can attest. This word was coined pre-Covid by an apocalyptic and very well funded ngo named Omega. Omega paid for the study that claimed that humans would no longer be able to reproduce by 2040 due to plastic contamination. That particular crisis didn’t seem to get the desired attention. Are you affiliated with Omega?
Actually, India has a higher per capita GDP then Bangladesh. The IMF which earlier claimed that Bangladesh had surpassed India later came up with another report saying that India will remain ahead for the foreseeable future. India's per capita GDP stands at ~$2500
What a breath of fresh thinking----FED Chair Powell claims his policies need to be domestic oriented but this reveals the impact on many nations from the continued efforts at zero interest rates and massive liquidity infusions .Now the rising dollar is causing too much pain on many of the economically fragile around the globe.It is Tooze who is picking up the baton from Susan Strange and Robert Cox and showing the flaws in the micro thought processes of the modelers of economic outcomes
It makes no sense to compare per capita income between India and Bangladesh (or for that matter, for most countries) without adjusting for purchasing power. If we do that, the World Bank tells us that India stands at 6,300 and Bangladesh at 5,200 (USD but PPP adjusted current 2020 value).
Good analysis, but I notice the last paragraph says "In the global power game... India... serves to further enhance the pressure within South Asia, the opposite of what a hegemonic strategy would entail."
Perhaps India has no intention to adopt a hegemonic strategy, and is just being a realist, looking after their people given their challenges. Just like China's is not a hegemonic strategy either, contrary to Western demonisation - it is not in their cultural DNA - if you look at history, they were the #1 and #2 World powers for thousands of years except the past c250 (which, in all likelihood, is an aberration soon to be reversed), yet they did not colonise, attack and "contain" everybody everywhere, like the "rules based", "human rights upholding" West, did they?
"China is a key creditor of both Sri Lanka and Pakistan." There is no evidence provided for this claim, claim that is also contradicted by previous statements, that Sri Lanka borrowed from commercial banks and Pakistan from institutional borrowers like IMF, World Bank and governments.
There were a handful of studies showing that it is a falsehood perpetrated by the west about the "debt diplomacy" pursued by China. Beside being a lie, it reeks of projection. The quoted text seems a gentle nudge from the author on the reader's mind to continue to believe this nonsense.
Imran Khan was deposed by the PAK military, at the behest of the USA (Khan had the temerity to visit V. Putin in Moscow following its invasion of UKR)
This is a good overview of the region and I included it in my weekly emerging market links post: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-september-26-2022
I think India has enormous long term potential without all the baggage, problems and uncertainty that is starting to weigh down China e.g. India is largely "settled" politically as no matter how messy or short sighted it's democracy can be with policy shifts (along with the Pakistan issue), there's no uncertainty about its political system continuing for the long term or being dependent on the whims of one person in charge....
Thank you for zooming out our perspective, maybe $4/gal gas in the US isn’t as much of a crisis. I would be interested in a similar analysis applied to the United States’ response to global heating caused disasters: e.g. New Orleans, Houston, the Atlantic & Gulf coasts, Puerto Rico.
Interesting choice to use the term “polycrisis”. It’s not a word in common circulation as Google Trends can attest. This word was coined pre-Covid by an apocalyptic and very well funded ngo named Omega. Omega paid for the study that claimed that humans would no longer be able to reproduce by 2040 due to plastic contamination. That particular crisis didn’t seem to get the desired attention. Are you affiliated with Omega?
Actually, India has a higher per capita GDP then Bangladesh. The IMF which earlier claimed that Bangladesh had surpassed India later came up with another report saying that India will remain ahead for the foreseeable future. India's per capita GDP stands at ~$2500