On March 8 as the global market for Nickel seized up and commodity markets spasmed, the European Federation of Energy Traders, a leading industry group, called on central banks to provide liquidity to support vital commodity markets. Clearly the Ukraine crisis is a political and geopolitical event of the first order but in recent weeks many of us have been asking, how it might impact the global financial system. Does the letter by the commodity traders sound an important alarm?
The role of the clearing houses should not be forgotten. The establishment of LME Clear and LCH should eliminate counterparty risk in the event of default. However whether they are up to the task is another matter. The fact that LME suspended nickel trading implies that they may not, choosing to suspend activity and cancel trades, be able to manage their market risks. A wobbly Clearing House represents a more existential risk to markets than a defaulting counterparty.
My comment was truncated. Here's the full comment:
Interesting and extensive. Thanks for quoting me. I wrote a post on this particular subject yesterday, and wrote a white paper on the issue of whether commodity trading firms posed a systemic risk. My conclusion then--that they do not--remains unchanged in the face of these current events. Re A Miles' comment, I also wrote a post on nickel and the central clearing issues.
Conventional central bank liquidity support is collateralized. Clearing houses don't have much illiquid collateral worth posting. This isn't a conceptual problem for an unlimited liability mutualized clearing arrangement. The "collateral" is simply the collective IOUs of the members, which can be quite illiquid in a crisis, but will pay off in time unless the entire industry is permanently insolvent. However, clearing has become a limited liability business: as permitted by brain-dead regulators. Which puts the central banks in a bit of a pickle.
Just imagine a world WITHOUT commodity futures contracts! A foreshortening of financial vision that undermines the entirety of "net present valuation", you undermine that.......you can kiss it *all* bye. And the bizarro notion of "liquidity" support while inflation is on fire! what happens to logic beyond the event horizon?
Congrats on #100!
The role of the clearing houses should not be forgotten. The establishment of LME Clear and LCH should eliminate counterparty risk in the event of default. However whether they are up to the task is another matter. The fact that LME suspended nickel trading implies that they may not, choosing to suspend activity and cancel trades, be able to manage their market risks. A wobbly Clearing House represents a more existential risk to markets than a defaulting counterparty.
Cheers! I will say that I called this one early. https://twitter.com/SAlexashenko/status/1499012485076164608?s=20&t=P_tSL19VDf5bBbm8TXp3KQ
God forbid that traders actually be forced to recognize the true level of risk in the world.
My comment was truncated. Here's the full comment:
Interesting and extensive. Thanks for quoting me. I wrote a post on this particular subject yesterday, and wrote a white paper on the issue of whether commodity trading firms posed a systemic risk. My conclusion then--that they do not--remains unchanged in the face of these current events. Re A Miles' comment, I also wrote a post on nickel and the central clearing issues.
Here's the post from yesterday:
https://streetwiseprofessor.com/the-current-volatility-is-a-risk-to-commodity-trading-firms-but-they-are-not-too-big-to-fail/
Here's the nickel post:
https://streetwiseprofessor.com/a-nickel-is-now-worth-a-dime-is-the-lme-too/
Conventional central bank liquidity support is collateralized. Clearing houses don't have much illiquid collateral worth posting. This isn't a conceptual problem for an unlimited liability mutualized clearing arrangement. The "collateral" is simply the collective IOUs of the members, which can be quite illiquid in a crisis, but will pay off in time unless the entire industry is permanently insolvent. However, clearing has become a limited liability business: as permitted by brain-dead regulators. Which puts the central banks in a bit of a pickle.
Just imagine a world WITHOUT commodity futures contracts! A foreshortening of financial vision that undermines the entirety of "net present valuation", you undermine that.......you can kiss it *all* bye. And the bizarro notion of "liquidity" support while inflation is on fire! what happens to logic beyond the event horizon?
Another super intuitive article. Congrats on #100