Why the dollar is depreciating. South-South migration. HEAL jobs. Marseille, Corsica & the French Connection.
Great links, images, and reading from Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze
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Heribert Fischer-Geising (German, 1896-1984) “Self portrait” (1914). Source: Heribert Fischer-Geising Foundation
Brad Setser on why the dollar has depreciated in the first months of Trump 2.0 rather than appreciating as many expected.
The 2023-24 dollar was at a level that implied an ever-shrinking U.S. export base.
It was also at a level that implied an ever-growing trade deficit.
Dollar strength was even weighing on the offshore income streams generated by America’s world leading digital platform companies—IP exports and FDI profits were falling as a share of U.S. GDP.
Source: CFR
HEAL jobs
If you don’t want to talk about gender you really shouldn’t be talking about industrial policy. The priorities, explicit and implicit that the preoccupation with manufacturing articulates need to be held up for examination. In light of Trump more than ever.
Working-class American men have now reached a point where, across a multitude of economic measures, they’re struggling. The jobs they used to dominate are disappearing, their wages aren’t growing, and they’re employed at a lower rate than in prior decades. Meanwhile, men are spurning the jobs of the future. No, not STEM jobs—“HEAL” jobs, or occupations that form what’s known as the “care economy,” as well as ones that require a higher degree of various kinds of literacy. (Reeves, who founded the American Institute of Boys and Men, coined the term; it stands for health care, education, administration and literacy.) While there’s been a decisive increase of women in fields traditionally dominated by men, there hasn’t been any movement in the other direction. The share of women in STEM has increased to 24%, up from 9% in 1970, while the share of men in HEAL has fallen to 22%, down from 31% in 1970. As the AIBM writes in its research brief on the topic: “This means missed job opportunities for men as well as a damaging lack of men in some vitally important roles.”
HEAL jobs are almost entirely dominated by women, and the share of men working them is decreasing. Health-care jobs, in particular, have outpaced growth in other sectors over the past 20 years, with women reaping most of the gains. Reeves notes in Of Boys and Men that, while there have been major efforts to get women into men’s fields, there’s been essentially no movement in the opposite direction.
Source: Bloomberg
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How China’s trade is shifting across all categories towards the emerging-market world
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Heribert Fischer-Geising (German, 1896-1984) “Boy Writing” (1920’s). Source: Neue Galeri
Over the last five years, half of global migration and refugee flows happen between emerging-market and developing countries
Overwhelming majority of Sub-Saharan African migrant flows remain within Sub-Saharan African, whereas Middle East, Central Asian and Asian flows are more diverse. United States is second largest recipient after Europe.
Source: IMF
Newark’s failing radar system sits in the middle of some rather busy airspace!
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Coal to solar for Mongolia’s ger districts
On the outskirts of Mongolia’s capital city, Ulaanbaatar, lie the ger districts, residential areas filled with traditional dwellings and marked by a lack of connectivity to water and electricity infrastructure. For generations, ger district families like Oyuntuya’s have shaped their lives around coal stoves, often spending upwards of three hours a day just tending to the fire, missing hours of precious time with their families and limiting work opportunities. In a country where temperatures can reach lows of -40 degrees Celsius, coal is a feature of everyday life – and its use in the ger districts accounts for nearly 80 percent of the country’s total emissions. According to the World Health Organization, 3,010 people die in Mongolia each year from diseases caused by indoor air pollution. The ger communities have long borne the brunt of the impact. … The Coal to Solar initiative, a joint project of the Universal Renewable Energy Certificate Accreditor (URECA) and GerHub, a local nonprofit group, focuses on converting households to solar energy, accompanied by targeted improvements to ger insulation in key areas to increase the thermal performance. … Today, GerHub’s low-cost solutions are leading to serious improvements in daily life for ger district residents and preventing approximately 4-5 tonnes of coal annually per household from being burned.
… so far however for tiny numbers of people.
Source: The Diplomat
Truly fascinating video about the French history of the “French Connection”
Heribert Fischer-Geising (German, 1896-1984). “Still Life With Irises” (1928). Source: Neue Galeri
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