Top Links #114 The Himalayan conflict zone, macro imbalances & opium prices.

Great images, links and reading from Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze

Adam Tooze

Nov 10, 2022

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Council on Geostrategy @ConGeostrategy

The paper is accompanied by a map of the area examined. Find it below!

A map drawn to highlight the Sino-Indian border offers a striking angle on the world.

Macro imbalances

China continues to pile up the largest current account surpluses ever recorded by any country anywhere.

Source: Daily Shot

China’s surplus stack on top of the petrodollars being accumulated by Russia and Saudi

Brad Setser @Brad_Setser

The surplus side of the ledger is now basically coming from two and only two sources: China, and the world's energy exporting economies. Consider the combined surplus of these three countries. Selected at random of course, with no thought of their geopolitical importance ;) 2/

Russia has surpassed Iraq and Saudi Arabia as India’s largest supplier of oil

Source: FT

Japan’s balance of payments

One a trade surplus champion, Japan now runs a trade deficit largely offset by its gigantic income from overseas assets.

From Matt Klein at the Overshoot

Not ending yet: trade globalization since 1827.

But Martin Wolf in FT is seriously worried.

Tinbergen’s rule

The Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen’s name is immortalised in the rule every economics student must — and every policymaker should — learn: you need one policy tool for each policy goal you are trying to achieve.

Martin Sandbu in the FT

Taliban drug ban

On 3 April 2022, the Taliban imposed a comprehensive ban on the cultivation, production, trade and use of all drugs, not just on opium poppy cultivation but also the production of opiates, such as morphine base and heroin, cannabis and hashish as well as the burgeoning production and trade of methamphetamine in Afghanistan.

One immediate impact was to send opium prices through the roof.