Frontier markt spreads. Misallocated capital. Bad education. Bulgarian computers.

Great links, images, and reading from Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze

Adam Tooze

Jun 30, 2026

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Summer Frank Lobdell 1962

Frontier markets are facing nasty rates, but not due to wider spreads.

Pressure on frontier markets has been growing. Many countries experienced a fiscal and balance-of-payments deterioration as they subsidised and imported fuel and fertiliser during the Iran War. Old debts are also coming due — $180bn in 2026 alone — and elevated rates create rollover risk. For the poorest countries, foreign aid has dried up, blowing holes that amount to half of some governments’ budgets. The outlook is grim. But markets are not. While yields on frontier markets’ Eurobonds have risen, that rise has been driven by the underlying risk-free rate. It has not been driven by an increased risk premium for frontiers themselves, even as their fundamentals have deteriorated. Frontier market spreads have become remarkably tight at 330 basis points, nearing historic lows.

Source: FT

North Sea oil production is declining and it is not coming back

Source: Reuters

Why nuclear is a diversion from the real focus of energy policy

Source: Michael Cembalest CDN

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China’s green energy revolution comes at a heavy price in terms of local pollution

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27 October 1949 Frank Lobdell 1949