Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Clint and Louise Taylor's avatar

Beautiful and compelling. I read every word and could not stop til I reached the end of this unforgettable essay. Thank you!

Expand full comment
Malcolm's avatar

On the Soviet production miracle, we should remember it could never have happened without Allied inputs, especially US raw materials and trucks. And let's not forget between June 1941 and early 1942 most of the lendlease was being delivered by the British via the treacherous Arctic convoys to Murmansk, when the US was still neutral and Britain was stretched to the limit.

Soviet losses in the first months of the war were so horrendous that 75% of the tanks defending Moscow in December 1941 were British! You can argue Britain saved the Soviet Union in the first year of the war, just as the US fuelled the Soviet war economy and industrial mobilisation between 1942-45. You also have to accept that just as Soviet totalitarianism made total mobilisation possible in 1941-45 it was also the reason for the swift decline in the quality of the Soviet military after the war that emphasised quantity over quality and was the main reason for the defeat in Afghanistan and the USSR's collapse in 1991.

I wrote the comment below to a previous AT chartbook: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-289-d-day-80-years-on-world, sorry for the length.

"If there was a productive “miracle” in World War II it was not to be found in the West, not in Britain, the United States or Germany, but in the Soviet Union...it was out of that furnace that the Soviet military emerged as the most formidable land army the world had ever seen."

Great pieces as always. But remember the "Soviet production miracle" would never have been possible without the massive lendlease deliveries especially the raw materials Russia needed to build these weapons on that scale. So while the Soviet sacrifice was enormous, the western allies, especially the US after 1942, effectively bankrolled the Soviet war effort and got scant recognition in return to this day.

The Soviets gave their blood, vast manpower and superior military hardware, especially tanks and artillery. But without western support, the Soviet economy and industry would likely have collapsed in 1941/42.

And as much as the allies may be guilty of not giving enough credit to the Soviet war effort, the same is even more true in Russia, where the allied contribution is dismissed as a minor sideshow. In the numbers involved in actual combat that maybe true. But the west's material was still the decisive lifeline that kept Russia in the war.

One significant example can be seen in the crucial early phase of Barbarossa, after the catastrophic Soviet losses in the early months of the German invasion. As the exhausted Panzer divisions approached Moscow, 75% of the tanks defending the Soviet capital were British, transported via the Arctic convoys, the only viable transport route to their new Soviet ally. So Britain arguably saved Russia in 1941, as the loss of Moscow would have been an enormous prestige, morale, strategic and logistical loss to the Soviet Union's capacity to fight on.

So the Soviet machine that emerged from WWII was in large part a product of the mass material and industrial mobilisation you describe. The west outsourced the heavily combat lifting to the Soviets who were simply geographically and in terms of human resources and hardware better placed to wage the land war on that scale and degrade Germany's awesome military might.

The sheer scale of the fighting and length of front and Soviet numerical superiority allowed them to switch the point of attack at will. But that too was only possible thanks to thousands of US trucks and halftracks that made the strategy possible and successful. Without that, the Soviet losses already horrendous throughout the war, would have been unsustainable. And despite their superior hardware, the Red Army even more than the western allies, relied on sheer weight of numbers, material mass and brute force to bludgeon the mighty Wehrmacht into submission. There was very little tactical subtlety involved. And of course, Stalin's Soviet Union was far less squeamish about sacrificing its people to defend itself than its western allies, having already murdered or imprisoned up to 30 million before the war!

And is it a surprise that the mighty Soviet war machine swiftly fell into decline once it was deprived of access to western technology and industry in the post-war era? The myth of the Soviet steamroller pushing through to the Atlantic in two weeks has long been debunked not least by the Soviets who admitted their military prowess looked far better on paper than the propaganda claimed.

Despite the early successes of its space industry, the Soviets quickly fell behind the west technologically and were only able to keep up militarily through their massive industrial espionage programme. But even that was not enough.

As Soviet military spending started crippling its economy, Reagan and Thatcher renewed the allied war strategy of mass material and economic superiority that had made D-Day possible, but this time they outstripped and out produced their former allies, the Soviet Union. So the 1984 D-Day celebration had even greater symbolic significance by marking the renewal of the western alliance and strategy that had won WWII with Soviet help, but this time to win the Cold War and defeat the Soviet Union. Predictably the Soviets boycotted the D-Day events with a lot of derision and criticism. 1984 marked a lowpoint in Cold War relations, the same year the Soviets and Warsaw Pact satellites boycotted the LA Olympics.

But 1984 was also the turning point. The Soviet Union just could no longer match the west's technological and consumer-driven industrial superiority and in the late 1980s it came close to collapse. The great irony perhaps is that the last general secretary, Gorbachev, was reduced to begging subsidies from its former existential arch enemy Germany just to keep the Soviet economy going in return for supporting German reunification and pulling the rug from under the DDR!

Perhaps one more postscript is that Reagan's focus on high-tech weaponry especially "Star Wars" (SDI) so terrified the Soviets it forced them back to the negotiating table and triggered Gorbachev's reforms. It was arguably the final and decisive expression of the military-industrial-technological complex that had not only won WWII, built the A-bomb that created the nuclear age, and finally humiliated the Soviet Union and created the US dominated post-Cold War paradigm since 1990.

I've often though that while SDI may have been a technological fantasy beyond the reach of the time, the huge investment in new technologies and R&D created an enormous new industrial network of high-tech industries and infrastructure, demand for IT engineers and software developers that played a huge role in the US tech boom that kicked off in the early 1990s and is today the biggest contributor to US GDP.

A vast defence infrastructure network suddenly redundant, with thousands of highly qualified former US defence tech workers found themselves unemployed all thanks to the Cold War "peace dividend", flooding the jobs market, joining or founding start ups, just as the internet was taking off. Not forgetting, of course, that the Internet itself was a former US military project (Arpanet). So the link to that massive military-industrial war effort that started in 1941 still shapes our world in more ways than we realise.

Expand full comment
101 more comments...

No posts