The full recovery of a forest ecosystem after a major fire can take hundreds of years, a thousand, and we're talking about an economic conflagration that would encompass much of the world. Sure, the world recovered from WWI and WWII, but who would brush off the human and ecological catastrophe of those "fires" so cavalierly.
When will the idiots in Europe take their money out of the US and invest it in their own countries and in our neighbouring countries. It would be easy to orchestrate and, while coming with some massive costs, makes far more sense than sending all our money to another country to be invested there, effectively in a military complex which then wreaks havoc all over our parts of the world. This is the stupidest act of collective self persecution the world has ever witnessed.
Of course things will be fine in the US, they are on the other side of the world and they don't experience the consequences of their actions. So when the IMF estimates the impact of all this on the US economy, much like during the second world war, they emerge remarkably unscathed. Great for them and wreckage for us.
Little of the adverse effects of the wars, specially, Iran will personally affect the Powers That Be.
The only ones hurt will be the little people who, it’s more than clear enough, will accept the abuse with no significant resistance. Here in the US the 2024 was proof of concept of the passivity and just ignorance that supports the PTB. (Hungary wasn’t a good example of what we can do here because our national opposition isn’t one. It’s just an alternative. If there’s a blue tsunami in congressional races in November (DNC, DSCCC and DCCC actions have made it less likely than it should be), it’ll be followed by major disappointment as the Democrats fail to deliver because they have little interest in delivering since what needs to be done conflicts too much with many or most its donors pay them for. And if they want to deliver, all the DINOs ensure the votes wouldn’t be there.
It’s as simple as our leadership elite doesn’t care about the wellbeing of anyone other than themselves.
What the global elite reveal to Davos sex workers: High-class escort spills the beans on what happens behind closed doors - and how wealthy 'know the world is doomed, so may as well go out with a bang'
I’m at a private market assets conference in Nashville with hundreds of general and limited partners networking… Trump has encouraged the sale of these lightly regulated financial products to retail investors. The atmosphere is similar to what Adam described so well. No one admitting that the elephant in the room is real and a threat.
Characterize this time of disruption and collapse as a Fourth Turning or by any other reference, many saw it coming. No one was able to stop or significantly divert it. And much that was built up literally needed or needs to coming down. Noting that ultimately regrowth follows fire is not an inappropriate hope to express.
I gather Morgan Stanley mostly thinks paying for more expensive gas will use up the tax cuts from the OBBB and depress demand from consumers who it is acknowledged might be too strapped to buy food if they also pay for housing and yet things don’t look bad for the stock market so it’s fine.
The $2 billion per day figure is the headline, not the bill. It captures unbudgeted incremental spend. It excludes the pre-strike buildup, the interceptor contracts signed for multi-year delivery windows, the reconstruction procurement already authorised, and the escalation of the base budget running underneath the operation.
The "external/exogenous" framing Tooze identifies is the billing mechanism. Filing the war as a discrete disturbance lets the fiscal consequences be classified as non-recurring and keeps the severe scenario tail outside the base case. The DC conversation is silent because the accounting is still open. Once the receipts close, the framing has to change, and the professions that did the accounting while the theory lagged will decide whether the reclassification happens quietly or in public.
I believe that the first thing that grows after a fire is weeds.
I am horrified.
That final statement is so arrogant and clueless.
The full recovery of a forest ecosystem after a major fire can take hundreds of years, a thousand, and we're talking about an economic conflagration that would encompass much of the world. Sure, the world recovered from WWI and WWII, but who would brush off the human and ecological catastrophe of those "fires" so cavalierly.
...and brush off Climate Change.
When will the idiots in Europe take their money out of the US and invest it in their own countries and in our neighbouring countries. It would be easy to orchestrate and, while coming with some massive costs, makes far more sense than sending all our money to another country to be invested there, effectively in a military complex which then wreaks havoc all over our parts of the world. This is the stupidest act of collective self persecution the world has ever witnessed.
Of course things will be fine in the US, they are on the other side of the world and they don't experience the consequences of their actions. So when the IMF estimates the impact of all this on the US economy, much like during the second world war, they emerge remarkably unscathed. Great for them and wreckage for us.
Little of the adverse effects of the wars, specially, Iran will personally affect the Powers That Be.
The only ones hurt will be the little people who, it’s more than clear enough, will accept the abuse with no significant resistance. Here in the US the 2024 was proof of concept of the passivity and just ignorance that supports the PTB. (Hungary wasn’t a good example of what we can do here because our national opposition isn’t one. It’s just an alternative. If there’s a blue tsunami in congressional races in November (DNC, DSCCC and DCCC actions have made it less likely than it should be), it’ll be followed by major disappointment as the Democrats fail to deliver because they have little interest in delivering since what needs to be done conflicts too much with many or most its donors pay them for. And if they want to deliver, all the DINOs ensure the votes wouldn’t be there.
It’s as simple as our leadership elite doesn’t care about the wellbeing of anyone other than themselves.
This article reminds me so much of an article I read some time ago in the Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14314191/global-elite-Davos-high-class-escort-spills-beans.html
What the global elite reveal to Davos sex workers: High-class escort spills the beans on what happens behind closed doors - and how wealthy 'know the world is doomed, so may as well go out with a bang'
I’m at a private market assets conference in Nashville with hundreds of general and limited partners networking… Trump has encouraged the sale of these lightly regulated financial products to retail investors. The atmosphere is similar to what Adam described so well. No one admitting that the elephant in the room is real and a threat.
Characterize this time of disruption and collapse as a Fourth Turning or by any other reference, many saw it coming. No one was able to stop or significantly divert it. And much that was built up literally needed or needs to coming down. Noting that ultimately regrowth follows fire is not an inappropriate hope to express.
Thanks - these are of course not good news but I appreciate your timely analysis, as always!
I gather Morgan Stanley mostly thinks paying for more expensive gas will use up the tax cuts from the OBBB and depress demand from consumers who it is acknowledged might be too strapped to buy food if they also pay for housing and yet things don’t look bad for the stock market so it’s fine.
The spivs (aka hedge fund, oil companies, tech, etc) always make money
It’s always a question of being on the right side of the trade.
the adults in the room :)
The $2 billion per day figure is the headline, not the bill. It captures unbudgeted incremental spend. It excludes the pre-strike buildup, the interceptor contracts signed for multi-year delivery windows, the reconstruction procurement already authorised, and the escalation of the base budget running underneath the operation.
The "external/exogenous" framing Tooze identifies is the billing mechanism. Filing the war as a discrete disturbance lets the fiscal consequences be classified as non-recurring and keeps the severe scenario tail outside the base case. The DC conversation is silent because the accounting is still open. Once the receipts close, the framing has to change, and the professions that did the accounting while the theory lagged will decide whether the reclassification happens quietly or in public.
I see a whole lot of whistling past graveyards — especially in markets …🤨
The sleepwalkers...
I think stability is more of an indicater for crisis.